It's a great paradox.
Japan went to war with China to create a resource base so they would be able to conduct a war against a major power (US). In so doing, their actions created the resource shortfall they were trying to avoid (US embargo). The solution, of course, is to go to war and end up in the situation they were trying to avoid in the first place.
Sometimes cooler heads have to prevail.
I don't think there is any way that Japan defeats the USA in the 1940's. They could have done things to make the war last longer, but the balance of force ALWAYS favors the US in the end.
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