The ATI 2600 or Nvidia 8600 will probably do you OK on DX9 titles like SHIV, but are barely adequate when dealing with DX10 games. Sure, they're DX10 compatible, but they won't give you decent framerates. This is especially true when you calculate the high resource cost of running Vista in order to get DX10 up.
If you're sticking only with older titles then I'd say you're OK with an 8600 but I don't think either card is a great buy in terms of stepping up to DX10.
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