Do you have any friendly harbor traffic when leaving your base?
One way to be sure, is sail into an enemy harbor that you know should be packed ..like maybe Scapa Flow, etc. I guess if there are no ships then you have a major issue and its not just bad luck.
Also folks need to know what Version of SH3 you are using, or GWX and what mods as well. The in game date, base and type of Uboat you are using also seem to come into play.
The more info you can give the easier it is for the the expert folks, ( of which
I AM NOT ONE ) that patrol these forums, to help you.