Well, I'm on the fence on this one. In one way, I see the players zipping off the shelves, and if you remove the PS3 from the equation, HD DVD has a much larger installed base. WIth PS3 in the picture, Blu-Ray still has the lead.
On the next note, I see the movie studios not producing titles at the same rate for Blu-Ray. We've got the CEO of Sony saying they are in a stalemate. I mean I could go on all day.
The point is, this is a turnabout to what has been happening - SOny lost its ground, and HD DVD has the momentum.
This is so like what happened with Betamax. It is a near repeat in history.
I'd lean towards them being in trouble, especially if the CEO of Sony says he wished right now that they made a Universal format with Toshiba. To me, that tells me he doesn't hold high hopes for the future of Blu-Ray.
But on the flip side, it is still too early to tell. Only time will tell.
So there - I gave you a semi wishy washy answer with the lean towards Sony being in trouble!
-S