Periscopes getting spoted happened, but in the game if the AI can see a scope, they can see your sub. A simple change might be to increase the effect of night on mitigating the visual detection. Strikes me that in a slightly choppy sea, you should have the ability to get pretty close on the surface at night, in a dead calm, less likely.
The other issue seems to be that there is no accounting for the different sized crews of the merchants. Smaller crew means fewer lookouts. Ideally, we'd have 2 visual sensors, one for warships, and a less capable version (representing poor training, and fewer eyeballs) for merchants.
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