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Originally Posted by jimbuna
How serious do you think Iran is ? Are they capable of being a threat to the awesome array of firepower lying off their coastline ?
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Yes.
Modern missiles can do a remarkable ammount of damage to ships - and they have plenty of these, plus mines, and a small handful of reasonable subs. Expect to see some modern types of anti-ship-missiles in their arsenal too that nobody previously had on his list, if it becomes a hot war.
Steering two aircaft carriers through the street of Hormuz, hm? Well, if the US Navy tries that during wartime, it will have two aircraft carriers less and two floating platforms more in it's arsenal.
I was in Iran for months. I can only warn everybody of underestimating their determination to defend themselves. The national sentiments amongst Iranians are extremely high, no matter the social class, no matter the age, no matter what people's opinion on religion and political freedom is. Patriotism runs extremely high in Iran. Maybe, better: probably commandos doing some local infiltration operations. But a land invasion of ground forces - forget it.
The greater threats are not for the US fleet anyway, but for iraq, the Israeli area of the ME and Lebanon, Europe, Afghanistan, oil markets, and a massive shift in poloticial baöances concerning oil trade partners (China, India, and strategically: Russia).
It makes me sad a bit that people here usually do not see the many sides of Persian culture and mentality, and reduce it only to "Ahmadinejadh'S Iran", further enflamed by the witness crisis in the 70s. But it remains a fact for me that amongst all Muslim countries I was in, in Iran I found the most reasonable mindset in many people. The educational standard is higher than in most other muslim countries. Amongst apostates from Islam who live as immigrants in the West, Iranians by far form the greatest group. the clerics and Ahmadinejadh only represent a part of the Iranian population, by far not all. I was not in Afghanistan, but on rare occasions met Afghans in Pakistan (were we also stayed only very short only), which also were very different (and in their way very impressive) from the Arab (and Pakistani) Muslims in other places.
Maybe it will come to a war in the future, and maybe, maybe not, I will support that (currently I oppose it completely). but I will always consider it to be a great tragedy.
If you think I am queer or I contradict my usual anti-Islamic statements, then you haven't understand so far what I am talking about in all those months. That the Ayatollahs now are so strong only illustrates what immense tragedy Islam means for the people and cultures it subjugates. Maybe we will fight them one day, and if I see a need for that, I will demand a far tougher going than politicians in the West are willing to accept, including the Americans, becasue peace and war is a black-white affair for me only. But I will never feel triumphant or excited about it.