The Kilos could be a pain in the arse, particularly to merchant shipping, their Hoot Skhvals could be a problem close range against shipping, they might use it as an underwater missile from a small torpedo or missile boat, rapid approach to target, fire and leg it. Unlike a missile the Skhval can't be shot down and if fired close enough there's virtually no reaction time.
But, this depends on the firing platform getting close enough to fire as you can hear a Skhval several miles off so it's primarily a close-in knife fight weapon. So to get to the target you either need the target to have no radar or a very old and useless radar set (which ditches out the US/UK Navy) or some kind of stealth ability...and I don't think the Norweigans have sold that to Iran.
Their missile boats shall be an annoyance, and I imagine one or two stray Sunburns might get through and cause damage, we may even lose a ship or two, no fleet is invincible, the Falklands showed that, and the Argies didn't have the SS-N-22 back then...and admittedly it didn't help that we built our ships out of aluminium too...but even so, no part of the force is invulnerable.
In retalliation however, you can kiss goodbye to Bandar Abbas and every visible naval facility, and their nuclear plant will be gone if it wasn't hit in the strike which prompted the conflict. Iranian airfields will be pummelled next by B-2s, cluster bombs on the runways, bunker bombs in the command posts. They'll be pretty much out of action for a week or two....but if Iran is smart they'll have back-up airfields out in the deserts with mobile radar and SAM sites (IIRC didn't they buy a load of new SAM systems off the Russkies a year or so ago?) to protect them. Iranian casualty rates will be high but they will inflict some damage on attacking craft, I'm thinking a couple of F-18s may get got by ground SAMs, the Iranian AF seems to have a lot of modern fighters, MiG-29s, 31s, Frogfoots, and F-14s with their Phoenix missiles which may catch someone unawares...but it is hard to judge such things on a basic numerical scale.
Which leaves the ground forces, their Zulfiqar series of tanks seem to have some interesting design implementations which rumour has it, have been put in place from the studies of M1 Abrams wreckage in Iraq. It has elements of a T-72 and M60, and some resemblance to the M1, monkey see, monkey do. But I doubt their ground forces (except the SCUD and AA branches) will see much use...there will probably be some border skirmishes on the Iran/Iraq zone, but I doubt very much that Iran will launch a full scale invasion of Iraq, not while so many Allied forces are in it...some strike missions on prime targets perhaps, but not a full-scale invasion...although I may be proved wrong. Chemical and standard SCUD launches will probably drop over the border, some may even hit their targets, which'll undoubtably be civilian. It's also possible that some of the Iranian missile boats shall strive to get into a position to drop LAMs on coastal targets. Minefields in the Straits of Hormuz will probably also hinder naval operations in the area until the minesweepers are brought in.
I would imagine Irans SOP would be to harry and harass, get in, launch and get out sharpish before the Allies can react. The Allies on the other hand will be focusing on hamstringing the Iranians C&C ability, taking out command centers, communications arrays, radar facilities...and I should imagine Iran knows this, it's not exactly a well kept Allied secret...so their defence will likely be fluid, if an airfield gets hit and destroyed, then retreat to a hidden airfield elsewhere, if that gets hit, then move again, keeping their command equipment mobile will help hinder accurate intelligence, for a time anyway. Irans AF will probably be decimated eventually, the fleet mauled beyond most repair, the ground forces damaged but if they stay out of Iraq they probably will be the least hurt, particularly if they disperse when the fighting starts. Being mobile and quick about it is the key to good defence, by the time the B-2s arrive you're no longer there, melting into the desert, having large rigid base structures is akin to painting a large Bullseye on every roof in the base with a little sign saying "Rockeye goes here."
It's the opening few days that'll be the decider, by the end of that the naval strike ability of Iran will have been reduced severely, probably down to a few ships and those Kilos who if they play their cards right, can survive for some time if they take it slow and steady...if they go crazy and have to recharge, they're P3 bait, if they have to go and find a resupply boat, then by the time they'll get there, they'll be trying to refuel from a burning wreck. So it's slow, steady and hitting merchants and clearing the datum before the cavalry arrives, in that way they can scare the merchant fleets and tie up fleet ability in escort duties to the tankers, as well as send the environmentalists mad with oil slicks and the media on overload with protests. That's really the main thing, kill enough Allies, do enough damage and it'll turn the public against the Allies and force them to curtail any long term plans, like has happened and is happening in Iraq. It's not just a physical war anymore, it's a media war as well, and the media is already warm to the side which isn't Bush and if the Iranians show enough pictures of carefully positioned childrens corpses and hits on 'Baby milk factories' then the media war is already swaying in their favour... the US may have talked about winning 'Hearts and Minds' in the Iraq strike, and while at first it may have succeeded, now the 'Hearts and Minds' are beginning to sway the other way, and a strike on Iran would probably only serve to push them even further, with extreme organisation recruitment levels soaring, the Allies have to be prepared for this and the backlash at home and abroad that will occur....it may not be immediate, but it will happen eventually.
So what Iran is saying is similar to a Puffer Fish puffing itself up, it can cause damage, that's for certain, but it's not 'The mother of all battles' that Dinnerjacket may reckon it is, and that's why Iran is testing us, unless it's not a major Ace up its sleeve that we don't know about, it's bluffing...until it finishes its nuke program...then all bets are off.
Dear god, I've done a Skybird...still, I do enjoy a bit of speculation.
