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Originally Posted by Rockstar
Although the wind is blowing their way, I doubt if more than 15 per cent of the population really want a full-blown Sunni republic. But the AKP is being patient. Gul and Erdogan are clearly willing to defer Turkey’s Islamisation if they can advance Europe’s.
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You can stop doubting, Rockstar. They have changed the constitutional rules by which to elect the president, he will not be elected by the parliament anymore, but by the people. This sounds nice and well in european ears (look how democratic Turkey is!), but estimations on how many Turks will elect the fundamentalist candidate in a vote are in the range of 70%, which by experience I have collected inside the country, and guts feeling, I tend to confirm.
The AKP leaders have understood that democracy is the best weapon to erode secularism from within. It also casts a spell that will bring the EU on their side in doing that. The EU already demanded the military - the only obstacle currently that protects secularism from fundamentalism, to step back and don'T interfere - the EU demands the military to ignore the turkish constitution , and in fact actively to violate it, because the unique role of the military in Turkeyand it's protective guarding function against Islam is anchored in the kemalist constitution.
"Democracy" at all cost (even suicidal ones), has become an obsession and fetsih of the West.
Those 15% you mention would have been a value I would estimate for the votings in the largets cities of the country, the toruist centres, the metropoles that give themselves a more Western face and make more economical income by leaning to the West. However, clearly more than three quarters of the Trks are living in rural areas, outside the major cities - and here I always found fundamntalism and conservatism to be the running drive in people's mind.
I expect that in the next elections it does not need the queer Turkish election laws to turn a one third share in votes into a two third share in parliamentary seats for the AKP. It all depends if they can mobilize the voters in the rural areas to greater extend than during the last elections. If so, they will have a substantial majority, I'm sure. If not, it might become something like the last time, if the opposition parties are not able to unite so that they do not loose so many votes and seats due to the 10% hurdle. So, the secular powers in Turkey have it in their own hands - selfishness and egocentric demand for power by each of the many candidates they have will destroy them. Becoming united will keep their chances.
This is the reasion why during the early days of the protests we saw two weeks ago, TV in many rurals areas was switched off. The ruling AKP and Erdogan did not wish their heartlands to become aware that there also is an opposing voice to ongoing Islamisation in Turkey.
Ironically it may need a hardcore Islamist Turkey to make more people in Europe aware of the threat Turkey's EU membership means for Europe.
In Berlin, meanwhile, a new huge mosque has been built, with towers pointing high into the sky. Muhammedan towers (towers throughout history has been seen as symbols of ruling, dominating, and conquest)overlooking huge parts of a "Christian" city - and politicians celebrate and think this is illustrating how tolerant they are and how tolerant Islam is.
Maybe they are simply too stupid as if they are worth to be defended anymore. Disgusting. I have spend good time in recent months helping to legally prevent the enlargement of a local mosque over here, and there are indications that our opponents are giving it up, for they played dirty tricks and thus have a very weak legal position. Looking at Berlin, some of us feel like being stabbed by our own people from behind.
And a short anecdote: short time ago, Merkel gave chirac a gift, an old beer mug with illustrations of Napoleon delivering Muslim armies a crushing defeat. Ankara was frothing with rage, and is said to have fired a lot of aggressive rethorics behind the official stage, and both at Berlin and Paris. Unfortunately they survived their temporary breathing problems.