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Originally Posted by CCIP
...now, U-533, I don't think the Japanese were THAT insane  And knowing them, they certainly would NOT culturally favour either losing or 'bringing in someone else' to do work in their country. No sir, I think you've really no idea how Japanese nationalism worked/works 
Yamamoto, of course, was among those who knew they had no chance, but that was far from the general attitude of their leadership. In retrospect, a more effective execution of the Pearl attack and other early actions, and a lack of blunders committed somewhat later down the road, could really put the US in a much more precarious position.
Whether the Japanese had a chance is an open question, but I would say that in december 1941, they could have turned the pacific campaign decidedly in their favour and achieved their initial goals. The real question is whether the US would have accepted peace terms after that; I don't think they would, myself. But that would have made the war much more difficult and prolonged, and could have had some fairly consequential effects on WWII in general. |
The Japanese knew that they could not defeat the US, but they felt the situation would be even worse if they lost any more time. The whole plan was resting on the hope that Germany would defeat Great Britain and Russia, and leave the possiblity of the US forced into some sort of peace treaty.
The timing of the attack was a disaster for Japan. By concidence, in December 1941, German military succeses had also reached their peak, as the russians counterattacked before Moscow. A couple of months later, Japan would not have entered the war any more because it would have been a sure defeat.