...now, U-533, I don't think the Japanese were THAT insane
And knowing them, they certainly would NOT culturally favour either losing or 'bringing in someone else' to do work in their country. No sir, I think you've really no idea how Japanese nationalism worked/works
Yamamoto, of course, was among those who knew they had no chance, but that was far from the general attitude of their leadership. In retrospect, a more effective execution of the Pearl attack and other early actions, and a lack of blunders committed somewhat later down the road, could really put the US in a much more precarious position.
Whether the Japanese had a chance is an open question, but I would say that in december 1941, they could have turned the pacific campaign decidedly in their favour and achieved their initial goals. The real question is whether the US would have accepted peace terms after that; I don't think they would, myself. But that would have made the war much more difficult and prolonged, and could have had some fairly consequential effects on WWII in general.