Too many variables to give a definitave answer.
Aspect of the target, size of the target, weather, sea state (rolling of the ship), etc.
Although I kind of doubt this is modeled in the game. It seens to be somewhat random. I havent really been caught with my pants down except for once or twice out of probably 10 or more patrols now.
Lately Ive become alot more catious and running submerged in daytime when near the Japaneese coast.
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