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At about 5 miles out on the conning tower of a sub only the very top of the mast would be visable from a ship in real life, do to the curve of the earth. However you should be able to see smoke atleast 10 to 14 miles out depending on wind and how clean they are burning their fuel.
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Many marus were notoriously smoky due to still being coal-burners. Japan's merchant marine was more varied than most Atlantic MMs, with a lot of very small, non-class tramp-steamer-like vessels from the inter-war period. Lots were in the 4000 ton range, which is a very small cargo vessel.
Sub crews used smoke a lot to determine approach tactics, such as the need for an end-around. As cargo ships hugged shorelines if there was shore to be hugged early sightings were pretty important to figure out how to conduct the attack.