Yea, well, recalling similar SHIII mods, I recall that (with a few special exceptions), mods like RUb used a reduction to 40% and even 20% of original single traffic. So I'm not at all surprised if you go to 35% with it.
Convoys will need a going-over later on, too. I patrolled at their point of origin off Japan for a while, and they're definitely excessive.
I'm going to try and pick up the touted "Japanese Merchant Marine in WWII" book here for reference, see what the comparative size of it should be. If someone points to research/realism again (:p), I think we can even come up with a pretty good estimate for the number of ships that should be at sea at any given time.
Does bring up the issue of "what the heck are we gonna do/sink in 1945?", though! I think a drastic reduction in merchant numbers should probably be accompanied by some modding to give more special tasks to subs...
...anyway, I think I'm going too far with the daydreaming here, too early for that!