Originally Posted by tycho102

I agree.

Iraq will become a "proxy", just like the Palestinians. The Saudi will fund the Sunni, and Iran the Shi'a. But I know the Iranians will win. That is the point where it's going to get interesting. Iran will start open (as opposed to current covert) convoys of rockets and missiles to Lebanon and the West Bank. They'll have that place fully stocked up, bunkers built, chain of command issues "worked out" (read: the right jihadists and imams assassinated), and the entire place trained -- within 12 months of taking ownership of Iraq.

And the Shi'a will definitely start leaning on the Wahabbi. Probably through oil distruptions, giving the Iranians some seriously outstanding profits if they can manage to keep their own supply lines protected -- which is what they are going to gamble against. Crude at $90 will enrich Iran far more than Saudi Arabia, if Saudi Arabia's supply has been cut.

It is interesting to note that Iran and Hizbullah, along with Syria, are feeling a little exposed after this last assassination of a Christian legislator. I think they are fortifying the right areas, namely by staging protests to disrupt the current administration before another "international investigation" into the assassination can be organized.




There's a lot of issues that are interdependent. I still think we should get the hell out of Iraq, as soon as possible. Just start flying C-5's out, gator freighters for whomever can mobilize in such a piecemeal fashion (Army supply corps), MAC flights for everyone else. We could be out of there in 30 days -- and I'm all for it.