I'm about ready for us to bail out of Iraq. Kurdistan probably deserves some debate, if they even care to have us there. Turkey can suck it, for all I care -- they were a fair-weather ally during the cold war, because the Russians would've drove there like nothing.
Let the Shi'a annhilate the Sunni, and then Kuwait, Oman, United Arab Emirates, and Saudi Arabia can figure out just what the heck their "options" are. A Shi'a coalition will put some pressure on them.
However, I do think that Al-Sistani isn't going to adhere to the Iranian mullahs to the letter which they would prescribe. And there's ambitious imams like Al-Sadir that will play for any extra power they can get. Iraq would become an absolute blood-bath (hundreds of Sunni killed, every day), and then the Shi'a would be able to start fighting amongst themselves. Just like mafia gangs, if the enemy is too far away, they will revert to infighting.
However, if I was Iran, I would use the opportunity to lay down an "autobahn" across Iraq and into Syria. If the Americans pull out of Iraq, it would be an outstanding opportunity to put in a highway devoted to supplying Hamas and Hizbollah. Right now, the trucks make slow progress across Iraq, taking a week or more to transit. A good road would cut that down to under 2 days, and would be useful for years because once the Americans pull out, there's no one that would bomb it (other than Israel, and they'd catch hell from all the mujahideen in the United Nations).
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