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Originally Posted by Skybird
It's ten years ago, and so I do not have it all on my mind anymore. But we even had very different statistics for the same time period about the same country!
BTW, your graphs only describe a correlation, somewhat (not really, but you emphaisze the link between two variables without further elaboratin it). Every academic trained in statistics will tell you that a correlation never - NEVER - tells you something about a causal link (nor does the display of just two graphs). A correlation coefficient (or the two graphs shown) only tells you something about to what degree the two variables tend to show "linked" values. WHY they do that is a completely different story. In your graphic it means that the fact that the two graphs in your interpretation mirror each other's meaning, does not autimatically mean that the one variable (number od death sentences) is causing the result of the other (crime rate). Like if you find a correlation between hair colour and size of shoes does not mean that the colopur of your hair has an influence on the size of your feet. the drop in crime rate could be casue by very different things, and the graoh of executions simply is a coincidence. You need far more statistical analysis and an elaboration on the raw data to come to a more meaningful conclusion.
In other words: that simple graphic - for the time being means nothing. It cpould be that some defender of death penalty just arranged it wshile ignorring the statistical background analysis, knowing that it would catch people's eyes and that most would willingly interpret it the way you just did yourself. But that is bad statistical procedure, and bad academical procedure. It could be very different. Maybe more police personnell (just an example). Less poverty leading to less robberies with murder. Less alcohol or less love affairs leading to murderings commited as crimes of passions. Who knows...
As my old statistics prof time and again was preaching us: "A statistical mean value is absolutely worthless if given without a couple of additional discriptive values, such as variance, and the like." Right he was.
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Note the source - the very org that keeps this kind of data in the US.
I do not buy your arguments without statistical proof that you mention. Post it. Until you do, its all opinion.
-S