[Skybird]

I think, and some commentators said somehting like that, too, that he hoped to parade into office like Thatcher once did, by winning a war.

This would explain the bad preparation, due to lack of time: the kidnappings were taken as a trigger, to use the opportunity demanded a quick reaction. Actually, I think the war was long wanted before and had nothing to do with the kidnapped soldiers.

A guerilla army cannot be defeated by huge ground battles, it tends to come back and to be more mobile, and mind you: IDF complains about being caught by surprise by Hezbollah's "strike first"-tactics. Hezbollah clearly had the initiative on the ground. It is beyond me why this was not corrected during the first week of the war. I supported the war, not because the kidnappings, but because the real reason of it: weakening Hezbollah's military potentials. but the longer it went on, the more my suppoort turned into disgust about the IDF's incometence. Especially the IDF I would have expected to know it better. But then again, i did not learn until some days ago that there have been massive cuts in defense budget, fundings for reserve units, reservist training and their equipment. Obviously no one had expected that Israel again would need to fight wars in the style of those that now lie in the past. The IDf had turned into a heavily armed police force, it seems.

Back then I said how it should have been done, in my eyes: the same ammount of aerial attacks, but for better targetting and taregt identification, more eyes on the ground would have been needed. Massive mobilising of ALL available reservists, finishing the process in the middle of the 1st week (you cannot do it in advance, before the war is launched, since this would have sent a warning message to Hezbollah). Flooding southern Lebanon with troops (eyes), rushing north in a small corridor to the Litani, and seal it off, isolate the South effectively and preventing escape and resupply, then dealing with the south en detail. While strategic bombing in the north continues, troops search every squaremeter, and when making contact, retreat far enough not to launch a battle, fix the enemy and call in artillery and air and shatter the enermy by overkill dosis of weaponry. Only in this way all the small hideouts and hidden facilties and storage places could be found and destroyed while minimizing own losses.

Lebanon war is a prime example of how one needs to fight in order to guarantee failure. Olmert must go, and the complete leadership of the armed forces as well. they screwed up, with very severe and lasting longterm consequences for Israel.

We have become too kind for war.

Future prospects: Hezbollah fighters will stay and live where they are. There will be no disarmament. they have more support now than before. New and more sophisticated weapons of longer range will be smuggled in. The UN force will be unable to prevent this (look at that landscape and you know why). Sooner or later Hezbollah will start launching missiles at Israel again - over the heads of the UN troops in their puffer zone. UN positions will again be abused for hiding. If the UN troops are stupid enough to use military force to counter Hezbollah'S strategic interests, they will be bombed out of the country like in 1983 the americans and French. This troop has no use, and no realistic mission, and Annan already has ruled out that it will use military force. I wonder why it is being send. It is irresponsible to do so, imo, and proves bad leadership and no sense of responsebility for the wellbeing and elemental security neefds of those men and women being sent. If you risk their lifes, give them a mission that is nworth it, and not this foolish nonsens mandate. Else all sacrifices of theirs will be in vain - unacceptable. New schools and hpsitals will be build on top of ammo bunkers. The next attack against Israel already is prepared.

For the perspective of an American war against Iran, the attempt to get rid of a risky second front at Israels flank has failed. The Iran war will see adjustements in it's planning.

American'S strategic trust into it's ally in that region without doubt must be shaken. It remains to be seen how this affects Washingtons future approaches to ME politics. It will not give it up, but it will not trust into Israel'S strength so much anymore.

Annan is a great hoper. I hate people hoping all day long, loosing all sense of realism in that process. Hopes are for dreamers.