[Skybird]

I stick to what I say about this war since almost three years now. Its not so much about wether Russia can win the war, but whether Ukraine can hold out as long as the Russians can. There is no doubt that both sides suffer heavy losses - BOTH sides. And there is no doubt that Russian losses are heavier than Ukrainian losses. But is the difference such that Russia will run out of steam before Ukraine, or not? The Ukrainians make the Russians pay. But not decisively so so far. And their own losses hurt them more than the Russians are hurt by theirs, becasue Russia can better digest them, has a significantly greater personnel pool.

And one question lurks in the background nobody has an answer to for sure. Will Russia, when it sees it cannot win conventionally anymore really just call it quits and stop - or will it put out the real big, the nuclear sticks next? Everybody rules that out, but I have not heard a reasonable, a convincing argument for that otimism so far. Hence nobody prepares for that scenario, basing on "it cannot be what I do not want to be".


Hence everybody seems to refuse preparing an answer for this worst case. Russia escalates since three years, even against NATO states themselves. Russia'S only reaction to anythign ALWAYS was to escalate even further. See recent events in the Baltic. They do so under the eyes of NATO, and NATO lets them get away with it. The Russian leadership is trapped in its narration, cant walk out of it anymore. Its a self-fulfilling prophecy now.

So here it is: "What will the West do once the first Russian nuke explodes on Ukrainian soil? What options, what readied options that are realistically possible, will form the reaction of the West then?

Mind you, Russia has changed its nuclear doctrine in such a way that from it it can take that using nukes in wars of aggression that take foreign land are allowed. They only must call the targetted land "Russian land", anbd forn that they only need a group of Russians living the smallest of the small coimmuntiies already suffice for this defitnion as a "Russian land that must be defended". They could invade Poland and the Czech Republic and even Germany , and by that doctrine it still would be a defensive war against their victim's aggression. And thats exactly what Putin did with Ukraine form all beginning on: denying its right to self-exiostence and claimin g it indeed is Russian land and is no separate ethnicity and culture, but is Russia. The Russian nuclear doctrine is not defensive, it is absolutely aggressive.

I do not say we should fall back here. We should carry on, so that must be clear. But we must prepare for the worst, we mjust maker answers ready for the case of "what if". Right now - we would seem to be totally helpless and "surprised" by this scenario.

And the US. Listen to Trumps whining wishy-washy babbling on that his best buddy Vladimir does not listen to him. Listen to Trumps reactions to the devastating air attacks of the past two or three nights, the heaviest in all the war so far. Listen to the deafening silence from Washington, and how the silence yells in the ear.

Nobody in the political realm has the worst possible scenario on his list of possibilities that could materialize. Not Europe. Not Trump. Not China.

Nobody.