[Skybird]

[FOCUS] Hopes for peace, or at least a ceasefire, are growing. But the coming days threaten to expose Donald Trump as a greedy egomaniac without a plan.

In the Ukraine war, one US about-face follows another. Trump throws Zelensky out of the White House, Trump stops US military aid to Ukraine, Trump stops the transmission of intelligence information to Ukraine, Trump doesn't want a raw materials deal with Ukraine after all – and then the reverse.

First, whio, whip, whip! And then a tiny bit of carrot.

The obvious goal of this seemingly erratic strategy of the Trump administration was to force the Ukrainians to the negotiating table, where they have been trying to go for years anyway, to stop Vladimir Putin's invasion and fulfill Kyiv's sole task at the moment: to ensure Ukraine's survival as a nation. One thing is clear: Trump doubts that Zelensky truly wants peace.

The Americans' crackdown was intended to make it clear to the Ukrainians: If you don't follow our orders, we'll make you suffer. And there they were. Tormented and humiliated, betrayed and abandoned, a battered Ukrainian delegation gave the US delegation in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, its OK for a 30-day ceasefire, which was ultimately presented to the warmongering Russians.

This alleged "milestone" in the war that has lasted over three years has been the subject of much speculation ever since. The fact that Trump is once again providing military aid to the Ukrainians – apparently as a reward for their compliance – has caused many observers to rejoice.

It was – and is – a process that makes Russia the beneficiary – and Putin the puppet master.

It doesn't take much to recognize this. The mere question of what benefits Ukraine actually gained by agreeing to the 30-day ceasefire is enough to justify this. The answer is: ultimately, nothing that wasn't already available to it a few weeks ago – even before Trump cut off the aid.

Sure, one can, for good reasons, believe that the mere possibility of silencing the guns after three years of war is a positive thing. Yes, the deaths would stop for a while. A long-awaited moment, especially for the battered Ukraine, its soldiers, and its citizens. This ceasefire can, of course, lead to peace – and perhaps that is the Americans' hope and strategy.

But that is only a hope. The question is: How sustainable is it? When one looks at the harsh reality of Putin's actions in recent years, one fears that it is not at all. Russia has violated ceasefires repeatedly since 2014 – from early agreements in Donbas (Minsk I/II and follow-up meetings) to local ceasefires that were clearly violated by the Russians.

Each time, the agreements were likely violated within a short period of time by Russian military or allied forces. A ceasefire would possibly be the calm before the next (Putin) storm.

And where does Ukraine actually stand today? Pretty much exactly where it was before the talks in Jeddah – only its negotiating position and the situation on the battlefield have deteriorated significantly. "Dealmaker" Trump himself was also responsible for this.

During the period in which Ukraine received no US support, Russian troops were able to achieve significant successes – such as the massive destruction of energy infrastructure or progress in the Ukrainian-occupied Russian region of Kursk, which could have served as a bargaining chip in potential negotiations with Putin. This bargaining chip is now also almost gone.

The only thing that has become clear is that Ukraine has been and continues to be under intense pressure to make concessions. Such as giving away a fifth of its territory – for many Ukrainians, no less than their homeland – to an aggressive despot, completely disarming itself, and ceasing any efforts to secure security guarantees. For Ukraine, it would henceforth be a life of ambush, oppression, and fear.

But Trump does have a peace plan! There's much more to it than that! If that's indeed the case, it's by no means – as things stand – one that will ensure a secure future for Ukrainians.

So far, nothing concrete has been demanded from Russia other than its consent to the ceasefire. 4.662 / 5.000
Trump's leverage: vague threats of sanctions, nothing really concrete.

"There are things you can do that wouldn't be pleasant financially. I can do things financially," he said.

The more you read that, the more bizarre it sounds.

What Trump's plan will look like remains a mystery. Trump wants to separate Russia from China, some say. But alienating historical allies, NATO and the Europeans, and sacrificing a free nation could backfire. As demonstrated, Putin is simply untrustworthy. Trump will now feel the consequences.

Putin now clearly sees himself on the road to victory. His reaction to the ceasefire proposal on Thursday already shows how infinitely expensive the "deal" will be for Ukraine – and for Trump.

Here's a little taster:

Putin asked a question about the Ukrainian soldiers on Russian territory in the Kursk region: Would they be allowed to withdraw under the ceasefire? Or would they instead have to lay down their weapons and become prisoners of war? In the same breath, Putin made it unmistakably clear that he would only accept the latter.

Putin also expressed fears that Ukraine could use the 30-day ceasefire to mobilize new troops and, with Western support, bring more weapons into the country. This, he made clear, was unacceptable for Russia.

Putin asked: "Or won't all this happen? How can we be guaranteed that this won't happen?"

Putin says no to the ceasefire without saying no. Several renowned experts, such as Carlo Masala and Thomas Jäger, see it exactly the same way. He asks questions to which Trump's negotiators have no ready answers, except perhaps to simply say yes and amen.

Russian soldiers in the Kursk region. In recent days, Vladimir Putin's troops have succeeded in recapturing more and more villages.

But things may get even worse. While Putin is coming up with the "salami tactic" – as political expert Thomas Jäger put it in an interview with FOCUS online – and thus embarrassing Trump and playing for time, the puppet master's followers are already demanding the big pieces of the pie:

Yuri Ushakov, Putin's negotiator, rejects the 30-day ceasefire. His reason: It would only give Ukraine a respite and thus help its army.

Russia does not want European peacekeeping troops in Ukraine. The reason: That would be a "direct armed conflict."

Russian diplomat Dmitry Peskov called for the abolition of the "illegal" sanctions against Russia.
The pro-Kremlin commentator Sergei Markov proposed an arms embargo for Ukraine. Then Moscow could agree to a ceasefire.

Another of Moscow's wishes: presidential elections in Ukraine. These would be possible after martial law is lifted. "Peace would allow Russia to influence Ukrainian politics and ensure friendly relations through peaceful means," Markov said.

Whether it's an arms embargo, a lifting of sanctions, or elections in Ukraine: the benefits for Russia would be immense. And then, once again, it's a matter of relying on Putin's word.

The next few days will reveal to the world how great Trump's "great relations" with Putin, which he so often boasts about, really are. The days will show whether this supposed spiritual connection actually has any effect.

Yes, Trump is good for surprises. Yes, perhaps we simply haven't understood Trump's strategy yet. Yes, he seems to be the only one at the moment who is at least bringing some movement into the conflict.

But he's dealing with a seasoned, unscrupulous despot. Putin can give Trump a good showing and entangle him in exhausting talks. The Kremlin can pile up conditions one by one and continue pursuing its strategic goals in the meantime.

This Trumpian peace offensive is running into a dangerous dead end.

The last glimmer of hope is this: All of this is false, and the Ukrainians are actually the clever masterminds here. US historian and professor of strategic studies Phillips O'Brien describes this optimistic scenario (which he himself no longer believes in) as follows:

The Ukrainians are the ones outmaneuvering the Trump administration. How? By getting Trump's negotiators to agree to the 30-days ceasefire, they have at least made it possible for Trump and Putin to fall out, says O'Brien.

Because, as the world now knows, nothing is more important to Trump than his reputation. That could now seriously suffer. And if Trump doesn't get his ceasefire and Putin refuses, or his demands are too far-reaching even for Trump, the US could actually reverse course and be prepared to do what Trump is threatening: impose tougher sanctions on Russia.

The Ukrainians would then move closer to their goal of moving closer to the US and receiving more military aid, and it could even lead to the US reviving its relations with NATO, the expert says. A clever maneuver that lures Putin into a trap. That's the theory.

As great as the desire may be, too many facts speak against it today.