[Dargo]

Hans van Koningsbrugge (Professor of History and Politics of Russia University of Groningen) that after attempts to stall for time, the Russian president will eventually reject the offer to temporarily silence the weapons. ‘This proposal is intended for the Americans as a stepping stone to eventually ending the war,’ he says. ‘But for Russia, none of the goals of that war have already been achieved and the ‘root causes’ of the war have not been addressed. In particular, the four annexed Ukrainian oblasts have not been fully conquered, even though they are enshrined in the Russian constitution as Russian territory. In the meantime, the Russian economy is shattered, hundreds of thousands have died, and now they should stop fighting? While Russia hates having to do anything imposed from outside anyway.’ According to Van Koningsbrugge, it is clear that President Putin is in a difficult position. ‘Russia has always opposed a temporary ceasefire, with the reasoning that Ukraine has to accept ‘the reality on the ground’ first. Moreover, Moscow says it would give Ukraine time to train its troops and collect weapons from the West. ‘If Putin now suddenly says yes anyway, he is showing weakness. If he says no, he will be dismissed as the party standing in the way of peace and get Trump and the United States on his ass. It is an impossible choice, the Russians are not in a good position.’

Mart de Kruif, former commander of the Dutch Land Forces, warns that Putin's ambitions are still the same as three years ago. ‘Russia has spent three years using all its resources to control Ukraine politically, financially, militarily and economically. It has not succeeded. Stopping now would mean that all those sacrifices have been for nothing, so Putin is not going to do that.’ On the front, Russia did manage to achieve renewed success on Wednesday in its border region of Kursk, where Ukrainian resistance now appears to be all but broken. It is likely that the last Ukrainians will be driven out of the region in the coming days, which would be a success for Russia. ‘But apart from that, things are not going well militarily for the Russian army,’ says De Kruif. ‘It is barely making any progress, quite the opposite. So rationally, you could argue that Putin too needs a ceasefire.’ De Kruif warns that Europe ‘a ceasefire could put Europe back to sleep and weaken the initiatives to strengthen the continent again on the defence front’. ‘I don't rule out the possibility that a ceasefire will bring back discussions on whether we really need to spend 800 billion euros on defence. Putin will be happy to see that happen. ‘We should absolutely not confuse a ceasefire with a peace treaty. We are nowhere near that yet,’ De Kruif adds. ‘Since the Russian invasion of Crimea and the Donbas in 2014, there have already been several cease-fires, which Russia has violated each time and which eventually led to the 2022 invasion. That is why Ukraine also wants cast-iron guarantees.’