SUBSIM Radio Room Forums - View Single Post - Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

Skybird · 01-27-25, 05:22 PM

The German politologist and expert for Russia Christian Osthold recently wrote in an essay for AdG:
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The assumption that economic pressure cannot persuade Putin to make concessions is too simplistic. Although the Kremlin publicly emphasizes the stability of the Russian economy, the intensive adjustments by the central bank since the beginning of the war show that economic realities are by no means ignored. Measures such as inflation control, interest rate increases and interventions in foreign exchange trading are clear indicators that the war is leaving deep scars on Russia's economy - and Putin is forced to respond to them.

Putin's goal of creating a pro-Russian Ukraine is also not as irrefutable as it seems. The Kremlin has long accepted that Kiev will no longer turn to Russia. Instead, Putin is pursuing a political victory: the retention of the occupied territories and the exclusion of Ukraine from NATO. These goals shape Russia's war conduct far more than the illusion of political rapprochement. The fact that Russia continues to bomb Ukrainian cities underscores this focus - an escalation that can hardly be explained by a long-term desire for friendly relations.

The portrayal of Putin as an irrational ideologue is also too simplistic. If one ignores the decision to lead Russia into a war for which it was not adequately prepared, Putin has distinguished himself in other areas through calculated and considered actions. He has reacted with prudence to military escalations, such as the shelling of Russian targets in the heartland with ATACMS. His rationality is also and especially evident in his willingness to accept Trump's invitation to negotiations.

Volodymyr Zelenskyj knows this too. On January 23, during a state visit to Chişinău, the Ukrainian president stated that he could imagine negotiations with Putin on the condition that Trump gave Ukraine security guarantees. He also said he was open to talks even if Ukraine did not return to the 2022 borders - a position that Kyiv had previously considered an indispensable prerequisite. Opposition Verkhovna Rada MP Oleksandr Dubinsky commented that Trump had made Zelensky “squirm like an eel in a frying pan.”
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"the retention of the occupied territories and the exclusion of Ukraine from NATO", he wrote. These words in my opinion now describe exactly the Russian goals for a continuation of the war, and I think it is like this since longer time already. In other words, this is the definition of a victory for Russia. And since all this means enormous territorial and economic losses for Ukraine, not to mention the many deaths and the enormous destruction in the rest of the country, noboy should be so foolish to try reframing this as a Ukrainian "victory". It isn't, and never will be. Its a defeat, and an enormous loss.

01-27-25, 05:22 PM	#6038
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 42,800 Downloads: 10 Uploads: 0	The German politologist and expert for Russia Christian Osthold recently wrote in an essay for AdG: ---------------------------- The assumption that economic pressure cannot persuade Putin to make concessions is too simplistic. Although the Kremlin publicly emphasizes the stability of the Russian economy, the intensive adjustments by the central bank since the beginning of the war show that economic realities are by no means ignored. Measures such as inflation control, interest rate increases and interventions in foreign exchange trading are clear indicators that the war is leaving deep scars on Russia's economy - and Putin is forced to respond to them. Putin's goal of creating a pro-Russian Ukraine is also not as irrefutable as it seems. The Kremlin has long accepted that Kiev will no longer turn to Russia. Instead, Putin is pursuing a political victory: the retention of the occupied territories and the exclusion of Ukraine from NATO. These goals shape Russia's war conduct far more than the illusion of political rapprochement. The fact that Russia continues to bomb Ukrainian cities underscores this focus - an escalation that can hardly be explained by a long-term desire for friendly relations. The portrayal of Putin as an irrational ideologue is also too simplistic. If one ignores the decision to lead Russia into a war for which it was not adequately prepared, Putin has distinguished himself in other areas through calculated and considered actions. He has reacted with prudence to military escalations, such as the shelling of Russian targets in the heartland with ATACMS. His rationality is also and especially evident in his willingness to accept Trump's invitation to negotiations. Volodymyr Zelenskyj knows this too. On January 23, during a state visit to Chişinău, the Ukrainian president stated that he could imagine negotiations with Putin on the condition that Trump gave Ukraine security guarantees. He also said he was open to talks even if Ukraine did not return to the 2022 borders - a position that Kyiv had previously considered an indispensable prerequisite. Opposition Verkhovna Rada MP Oleksandr Dubinsky commented that Trump had made Zelensky “squirm like an eel in a frying pan.” ----------------- "the retention of the occupied territories and the exclusion of Ukraine from NATO", he wrote. These words in my opinion now describe exactly the Russian goals for a continuation of the war, and I think it is like this since longer time already. In other words, this is the definition of a victory for Russia. And since all this means enormous territorial and economic losses for Ukraine, not to mention the many deaths and the enormous destruction in the rest of the country, noboy should be so foolish to try reframing this as a Ukrainian "victory". It isn't, and never will be. Its a defeat, and an enormous loss. __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert.