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[exxpress] Colonel Reisner paints a grim picture: "Ukraine is losing this war"

According to Colonel Markus Reisner, the next three months could seal Ukraine's fate. Time is on Russia's side, while Ukraine is running out of soldiers and resources. Russia is advancing inexorably, especially in the Donbass - a possible breakthrough in Pokrovsk could have devastating consequences.

Almost three years after the start of the Ukraine invasion, Colonel Markus Reisner paints a grim picture: "Let me make one thing clear: time is on Russia's side, while it is running away from Ukraine. Ukraine is losing this war. The images from the front clearly show that."

While Donald Trump's special representative for Ukraine and Russia, former General Keith Kellogg, is supposed to push ahead with negotiations in the next hundred days, the question arises "whether Ukraine can even hold out for these three months," warned Reisner in an interview with ZDF and ntv.

You can see "that the Russians are advancing steadily. Several square kilometers are conquered every day. In the Donbass in particular, there are attempts to advance from the west via the town of Bakhmut. South of the town, the oblast border is within three to four kilometers." If Russia reaches this border, "that would be another important victory that can be sold in the information space. That would motivate the population and show that they are on the advance."

Ukraine's biggest challenge is the availability of soldiers: "Many units, such as battalions with around 450 to 500 men or brigades with 3,500 to 4,000 men, are severely depleted and often only 40 to 50 percent ready for battle." In addition, "the front is extremely extensive. There are small bases with platoon or company strength, i.e. 30 to 80 soldiers. There are large gaps in between that the Russians use to infiltrate, infiltrate and advance. In this way, the defense is being torn away bit by bit.”

So Russia continued this war of attrition relentlessly: “In the West, it may seem as if there is ‘nothing new in the East’, but in fact the Russian advance towards the West is progressing day by day.” The fact that this is happening so slowly is also due to the daily use of many thousands of drones on both sides. “These drones make it possible to observe exactly what the other side is doing – there is the so-called ‘transparent battlefield’. This makes it almost impossible to deploy large units and go into maneuvers with them, as they are already being fought during deployment.”

In order to launch an attack, tanks would have to be brought together and formations formed. “However, if this is recognized in advance, it cannot be implemented. That is why we are seeing attacks in small groups - including in Ukraine, which is currently attempting counterattacks, especially in the Pokrovsk region."

But the Russians have now made considerable progress and there is now a threat of an "operational breakthrough" that could trigger panic on the Ukrainian side: "If you look at the front, you can see that the front lines that still existed after the fighting in 2014 have largely been lost. Russia was able to break through the second line last year. Now we see that the third line is being targeted at Pokrovsk." Pokrovsk is an important base, and "if this third line is breached, there will only be loose bases stretching from Pokrovsk to Dnipro."

Pokrovsk is an "important, functioning logistics hub from which one can advance far into the depths." If the Russian forces there manage to "break free from the grip of Ukrainian drones and gain space," it could be devastating: "Behind Pokrovsk there is almost only open land, flat fields and rows of trees that separate the fields from each other. Russia could advance relatively quickly here. There are fears that a breakthrough could trigger panic."

In total, a million soldiers were wounded and killed

Immediately on the front, one sees a "balance of forces of around 700,000 men on the Russian side to around 400,000 Ukrainian soldiers." According to estimates based on all available data, a total of one million soldiers have been killed on both sides. On the Russian side, there is talk of around 100,000 to 140,000 soldiers killed and around 400,000 wounded. On the Ukrainian side, there are around 80,000 to 100,000 killed and around 400,000 wounded. The numbers are enormous, and I have not yet mentioned the civilian casualties."
At the moment, Ukraine is still using drones to fight the Russian military. It "manages to keep the Russians at a distance by using kamikaze drones. Ukraine has a good picture of the situation and reconnaissance, despite limited resources. Through the targeted use of drones, it can deal decisive blows to the Russians. This means that the slow advance of the Russians is becoming apparent. But when you are faced with an opponent like Russia, which apparently does not care much about its own losses, as we see with North Korean soldiers, then Ukraine's ability gradually wears out. In the end, the grammar of the war of attrition comes into play, in which the quantity is decisive and not the quality of the weapons systems or soldiers used.”
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