[Skybird]

Don't allow yourself to be fooled by these stupid videos, they are propaganda. The Russians are in control of the offensive, the undisputed momentum is theirs and since months. They are advancing faster and faster. In the Donbass, there is the threat of a huge operational breakthrough at any time; to the west of the front at Pokrovsk is mostly open steppe, with no defensive lines. The Ukrainian brigades in the east have 50% of their target strength at best, most of them much less, troop rotation is practically non-existent in many places because there are no more reserves. The Russians are leaking through the front everywhere, according to pro-Ukrainian and pro-Russian bloggers.

Things are looking bad for Ukraine, and getting worse every day. I think we see the culminating and decisive phase of the war. I see higher than 50% chances that the war will come to a temporary end in 2025. It will not be peace, however.


If the Russian take Prokovsk, and they will, they have 150 km of undefended terrain ahead of them, until river Dnjepr. I do not see how Ukraine could operationally recover from that fiasco. And this scenario is not just one amongst many - its the most likely scenario currently.