Is there a possible realistic diplomatic solution to the US and China struggle over Taiwan?
Yes, a realistic diplomatic solution to the US-China struggle over Taiwan is conceivable but highly complex. Such a solution would require significant compromise, creative diplomacy, and cooperation from all stakeholders, including Taiwan. Below are some potential frameworks for a diplomatic resolution:
1. Status Quo Plus
The current
de facto status quo—Taiwan operating as a self-governing entity without formal independence—could be maintained but enhanced with confidence-building measures.
Key Elements:
- US Commitment: The US could reaffirm the "One China" policy while providing assurances of defensive support to Taiwan without crossing Beijing’s red lines.
- Chinese Restraint: Beijing could pledge not to use force against Taiwan and reduce military provocations.
- Taiwan’s Role: Taiwan could agree not to formally declare independence, while preserving its democratic governance.
2. Dual Recognition Framework
This approach would aim for dual diplomatic recognition of both the People’s Republic of China (PRC) and the Republic of China (ROC, Taiwan).
Key Elements:
- UN Membership for Taiwan: Taiwan could gain observer status or limited membership in international organizations.
- Peace Accord: China and Taiwan could agree to a long-term peace treaty acknowledging each other's governance without unification or independence declarations.
- Gradual Integration: Areas of economic or cultural integration could be strengthened over time, fostering trust.
3. "One China, Two Systems" Adaptation
China’s concept of "One China, Two Systems" (as applied in Hong Kong) could be reimagined with greater autonomy and safeguards for Taiwan.
Key Elements:
- Enhanced Guarantees: Taiwan’s military and democratic institutions could remain intact under PRC sovereignty.
- International Oversight: An international body could monitor adherence to the agreement.
- Global Acceptance: The arrangement would require broad international backing, particularly from the US and its allies.
4. Neutral Taiwan Framework
Taiwan could be declared a neutral zone under international guarantees, akin to Austria post-WWII.
Key Elements:
- Military Neutrality: Taiwan would renounce formal military alliances, including with the US.
- International Recognition: Taiwan could secure recognition as a neutral state with its current political system.
- Security Guarantees: The US, China, and others would commit to respecting Taiwan’s neutrality.
Challenges:
- National Identity: Taiwan’s democratic population largely opposes unification with China.
- US-China Rivalry: Taiwan’s strategic value makes it a proxy issue in broader US-China competition.
- China’s Stance: Beijing views Taiwan as a core sovereignty issue and opposes any move toward formal independence.
- Domestic Politics: Political pressures within Taiwan, the US, and China often fuel hardline stances.
The Path Forward:
The most viable path involves small, incremental steps to reduce tensions and build trust:
- Establish direct communication channels between the US, China, and Taiwan.
- Pursue joint economic projects that benefit all sides.
- Limit provocative actions, such as military drills or arms sales, in sensitive regions.
Ultimately, a long-term solution will depend on sustained goodwill, strategic patience, and the recognition that an immediate resolution may be unattainable under current conditions.