[Skybird]

[NZZ] The fact that from a liberal perspective there is no need to shed a tear for the failed traffic light government led by Chancellor Olaf Scholz was once again brought to the attention of the German public in the Bundestag this Wednesday. In a government statement that was delivered energetically but failed to recognize the seriousness of Germany's economic situation, the outgoing Chancellor showed no concept of how he intends to lead the stagnating country back to success.

Instead, he made general appeals for solidarity and warned against division - and blamed others. Scholz thus rehashed his story that the liberal Finance Minister Christian Lindner left him no choice but to fire him last Wednesday and thus destroy the traffic light government.

Finally, Lindner refused to agree to a suspension of the debt brake. But that would have meant that the necessary aid for Ukraine would have led to cuts in pensions or social assistance. Ultimately, this would be an economic stimulus package for extremists and populists, the Chancellor concluded, thereby making an implicit accusation against Lindner.

Quite apart from the fact that the transparent domestic political instrumentalization of Ukraine aid is shameless and that the Chancellor ultimately called on Lindner to violate the constitution, this accusation falls back on Scholz. Because no one has benefited more from the policies of his unprecedentedly unpopular government than Germany's political fringes.

It was therefore not surprising that the Christian Democratic opposition leader Friedrich Merz turned the ball Scholz had put in front of his goal into a goal. The Chancellor is the one responsible for the division in Germany, Merz said to Scholz.
Above all, however, the appeals to social cohesion made by Chancellor Scholz are codes for tough redistribution policies and unbridled borrowing. The fact that the SPD believes it can successfully appeal to German voters at the end of February with this political offer is one thing. But doing this on a day when the so-called economic experts are predicting only minimal growth for the country in the coming year is another matter and shows how out of date the concepts of the Chancellor and the SPD are.

The ousted Finance Minister Lindner therefore gave Chancellor Scholz the right answer in his response: it is not the zero-sum logic of redistribution that will help Germany, but only growth, prosperity and jobs for all.

Unlike during the long years of the grand coalition under Angela Merkel, a future Chancellor cannot simply build on a growing economy, but must first painstakingly create the conditions for one.

And both the FDP and the Union have presented serious concepts. At their core, both are concerned with unleashing the German economy. The necessary measures for this are cutting back on bureaucratic proliferation and a different energy policy that does not rely solely on the power of wind and solar power. At the same time, the debate in the Bundestag showed how difficult it will be to implement this program politically.

There will be no clear majority in the future government for the fundamental changes in direction outlined by the Union and FDP. The reason for this is the German proportional representation system, but also the strength of the AfD, with which nobody wants to work. A presumed Chancellor Merz will therefore probably have to implement his far-reaching reform plans with one or more of the previous traffic light partners.

With the FDP, if it makes it into the Bundestag, there is undoubtedly the greatest overlap. However, as of today, a majority is a long way off for the two parties.With the SPD and the Greens, on the other hand, the problems that have led to insoluble tensions in the traffic light government would once again reveal themselves under different circumstances.

There would then be a Chancellor who at least has a realistic picture of the actual situation. But whether he can then convince his partners of this is the big question.
-----------

No, that is no question. The CDU, now roaring and jumping like a tiger, will turn red-green-woke, I am confident to almost guarantee that. It will land as a carpet, therefore. Germans will vote CDU - and get a contitnuaiton of the red.-green.-woke agenda and policy there is right now and is at the EU top level.

You can take me by my word.

A first omen already is that the CDU agreed to have elections just in loate February. If the no cinfidnce vote would, have been held yesterday, the German president would have had a maximum of 21 days to dissolve parliament, and then the constitution demands that elecitons must be held 60 days thereafter at the latest. That, all in all, would have been mid-to end of January. Scholz wanted elections even not before mid-march, originally, three weeks later than now. Merz, this great Männele with the tiger voice and the land-like-a-carpet ability, had no reason to agree to mid February. No other reason at leats than that him and the SPD negotator are said to be close friends.

You must fear the worst. After the election will be like before the election. There are no alternatives to the current mess as long as AfD gets ruled out, it is the on ly power option avialable to the CDU thsat doe snot force it under the green-red-woke spell. After the election will be like before the election.

And who knows how long they negotiate coalition terms after mid February. We have no government in Germany furm now until then, and we already had none worth the term in past months and years. The last budget one year ago was ruled out by the Federal High Court. The current one again bases on violating the constitution.

Summary: nothing an no bettering is to be expected form the next government next year. As long as the AfD is ruled out as a coalition partner, every voter will just get more green-red-woke. Thbe CDU voter will ge tthat. The AfD voter will get that. and the green and red voter will get that.

The "Brandmauer" (=firewall against the AfD) has made the whole election pointless and paralyses every democratic movement taking place. Vote whatever you want - you always will get more green-red-woke. There is no hope to escape from this nightmare. Its like this since at least 20 years.