[Skybird]

They will hold out those months more that are needed until Trump is in charge and lets Ukraine fall. Even Trump has nothing that could force Putin wanting to "negotiate". So not only has Trump already given up Crimea (I have already 2014 and said the Russian would NEVER give that up again...), but he will need to allow Russia taking the four occupied oblasts as well. Else he must not even care for starting to talk to Putin.


Ukraine loses, Russia gains its objectives: Crimea, four oblasts, the core of Ukrainian industrial centre, huge ressource fields, major parts of its agriculture (competing against the world-influencing wheat exports from Russia).



And if the West does not do anyway, for whatever the reasons are, what would be needed to make Ukraine winning and reconquering the stolen grounds, continuing the war indeed is pointless, it costs Ukraine more than Russia. Its Ukraine that gets destroyed piece by piece, not Russia.



The West as a security guarantor and defence assistant has paid a high price, too. With loss of prestige and "nimbus" of being militarily irresistable.



In the long run, Russia will pay in demographic and social terms. The economic fallout it will get over, somehow. It seems it always does.



Second half of or late 2025 will be the time when Ukraine very likely cannot carry on with fighting. The lost territory will be gone, forever.



Question is what comes from Russia int he years after, speaking of all Europe. Moldavia. Kaliningrad. Poland. Baltic. Georgia.


As my grandparents still used to say: "Die Gefahr kommt aus dem Osten."


A huge influx of more Ukrainian refugees into Europe is to be expected, say the media. They could be right.