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Skybird · 10-31-24, 11:48 AM

[Tichys Einblicke] The Ides of November take place on the 15th and 16th. Following a certain tradition, the traffic light [coalition] could be murdered on this day. If the coalition does not agree on a budget that complies with the “debt brake” after November 14, the day of the “adjustment meeting”, the FDP will leave the federal government. The reason for the exit is perfect: as Finance Minister, Christian Lindner cannot accept the adoption of a questionable budget with high debt financing.

The FDP is already putting forward candidates for the Bundestag elections, which are not due to take place until September. These candidates are being prepared by the party leadership to be ready for the election campaign earlier. On March 2. This is when Hamburg elects its parliament. The leadership sees this date as suitable for holding an early election at the same time.

It is unclear whether the SPD and the Greens will play along with these plans. On the one hand, they have the option of agreeing to the FDP's conditions for tactical reasons and adopting a budget that adheres to the “debt brake”. FDP leader Christian Lindner would then be forced to continue swallowing red-green toads. The SPD and Greens could still push through their projects and cover them later, for example in the summer of 2025, with a supplementary budget. This would fall on Finance Minister Lindner's feet during the election campaign, which would then definitely be underway.

Secondly, Olaf Scholz cannot simply be voted out of office. In a constructive vote of no confidence, a majority in the Bundestag would have to explicitly agree on another candidate. Without votes from the SPD and Greens or the AfD, this would not be mathematically possible. After a failed vote of confidence, Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier (SPD) would have to decide whether the Scholz government is still capable of acting. So even if the FDP recalls its ministers from the government and no longer supports the coalition in votes, there is a good chance that Scholz could remain in office.

10-31-24, 11:48 AM	#2380
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 42,754 Downloads: 10 Uploads: 0	[Tichys Einblicke] The Ides of November take place on the 15th and 16th. Following a certain tradition, the traffic light [coalition] could be murdered on this day. If the coalition does not agree on a budget that complies with the “debt brake” after November 14, the day of the “adjustment meeting”, the FDP will leave the federal government. The reason for the exit is perfect: as Finance Minister, Christian Lindner cannot accept the adoption of a questionable budget with high debt financing. The FDP is already putting forward candidates for the Bundestag elections, which are not due to take place until September. These candidates are being prepared by the party leadership to be ready for the election campaign earlier. On March 2. This is when Hamburg elects its parliament. The leadership sees this date as suitable for holding an early election at the same time. It is unclear whether the SPD and the Greens will play along with these plans. On the one hand, they have the option of agreeing to the FDP's conditions for tactical reasons and adopting a budget that adheres to the “debt brake”. FDP leader Christian Lindner would then be forced to continue swallowing red-green toads. The SPD and Greens could still push through their projects and cover them later, for example in the summer of 2025, with a supplementary budget. This would fall on Finance Minister Lindner's feet during the election campaign, which would then definitely be underway. Secondly, Olaf Scholz cannot simply be voted out of office. In a constructive vote of no confidence, a majority in the Bundestag would have to explicitly agree on another candidate. Without votes from the SPD and Greens or the AfD, this would not be mathematically possible. After a failed vote of confidence, Federal President Frank-Walter Steinmeier (SPD) would have to decide whether the Scholz government is still capable of acting. So even if the FDP recalls its ministers from the government and no longer supports the coalition in votes, there is a good chance that Scholz could remain in office. __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert.