[Skybird]

Good analysis, I agree on it very much.

It is often said about partisans that they win a war as long as they do not lose it, and that their enemy loses by not winning it. Same is true for Israel, in a way, it survives by fighting only, and when it stops fighting, it will seize to exist. In this understanding it is by far no state like any other, because it's presence is not accepted by neighbouring people. All concession it has made in recent years, concerning giving up territories, have backfired on them, all territories have been turned into attack platforms against Israel. there is no reasonable reason for more negotiations, the frontlines are clear, the line is clearly drawn into the sand. It has no other choice than to be the bad boy of the block. If it wants to win at least temporary periods of cease-fires (I never think in terms of peace in that region), it would need to fight with far lesser scruples and consideration, and would need to accept the political cost of that. See my thread "Unwanted truths, where I linked to a text by another author who also argues that Israel needs to fight with far more determination and less remorse.

Israel is a no-win-no-win-affair, consequence of the idiotic folly that it's founding in 1948 has been. But 1948 is almost 60 years ago, we cannot reverse history and say it should seize to exist. It is there, since two generations. It's is stuck in it's own strategically indefensible existence. It cannot win anything substantial in fighting. But it will lose everything if it stops fighting.

Negotiating with Hezbollah, a terror organisation, or the Palestinians will not lead anywhere. Hezbollah has sworn to destroy Israel. Hezbollah means Iran. Iran has sworn to annihilate Israel. What is there to negotiate? Terms of annihilation? "We agree on our annihilation, but not before the year 2018?" Annihilation in rates? 20% of Israelis being killed or expelled every 5 years? Or a law that regulates a less chaotic handing over of Israeli territories and what possessions the Israeli may take with them when leaving? Becasue more you will not get from Hezbollah and Iran to negotiate about seriously. They do not want peace with Israel - they want Israel itself.

That Hezbollah and Iran also represents the ideology of Islam doe snot make things any easier.

My advise is grim, brutal, and no one will like it: seal off all Lebanon, then let the army, air force and artillery work it's way through it from south to north, killing every male of age 15-55, no matter his confession, and then strike Iran's program by use of nukes. If the West wants to engage in that region, which I do not recommend, then it should do so by lending additional firepower.

Would that kind of massacre be against international law, the Geneva convention, or a UN resolution? Yes. Do I like it? No. So what? When I say "war", I mean: war, and I do not have any illusions about what war means. Israel will only continue to exist if it chooses to be more brutal than it's enemies. That's the simple, grim truth. In order to exist in the future, Israel will need to become the brutal, uncivilised raging bully that it's critics today try to label it as. A self-fulfilling prophecy. Consider it to be the price for the folly of founding Israel in 1948 in that place, under these circumstances. If it would be just three or four years ago, I would say: abandon the idea of Israel and dismantle it again. But today, that would mean to repeat the same kind of injustice that has been done to local residents in 1948, only this time it would be different people. I do not accept that

Currently, Israel is heading for the greatest strategic defeat of it's entire history, if it does not change it's too restricted approach on warfare. Today they have paused their offensive, it is said. Ridiculous. In that way, on-and-off, they will be chewed up, and all the destruction so far will have been in vain. If they continue this war half-heartedly, I will take back all my support for them. Because worse than waging a brutal war at the cost of also doing massive damage to civilians is: doing it for nothing, thoughtlessly, not achieving any good. They need to massively intensify their war efforts, or they will bog down.

but it is possible that the plan is a very different one anyhow: in preparation of war against Iran, getting rid of enough of Hezbollah'S thread potential so that Iran cannot react to war by opening a second front near Israel, causing unrest and instability there. As I said repeatedly, the Lebanon war in fact already is an "indirect" Israeli-Iranian war. That's why they kill the infrastructure so systematically: to prevent reinforcement of (heavy) missiles and ammunitions via Syria and Iran. Once the flank of Israel is secured, a great vulnerability during a future war with Iran, no matter if the US is the dominant player in that, or Israel, will have been taken care of.