Fears Iran will have to act in revenge - as next step could spark all-out war
The targeting of two such senior Hamas and Hezbollah leaders within such a small time period is a massive escalation and takes the Middle East to the brink of a regional war.
But it is the geography of the death of Hamas’ political chief Ismail Haniyeh in an apartment inside Tehran that is most severe in crossing all of the usual red-lines.
His assassination inside the Iranian capital crudely shunts tensions way beyond a bloody localised conflict in Gaza and cross-border rocket attacks on the Israel Lebanon border.
Not only was Haniyeh playing a pivotal role in negotiations over a Gaza ceasefire but he was also a guest of Iran’s and perhaps regarded as untouchable by the regime.
The surprise strike came just after Mr Haniyeh had attended the inauguration of Iran's new President in Tehran and will likely spark a direct retaliation from Iran.
It was extremely risky, daring and carried a message telling Iran’s leaders “we can get to you,” as well as demonstrating enormous skill in intelligence gathering and planning.
But the situation is now so serious that Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei has vowed revenge on Israel and claims it has "prepared a harsh punishment for itself.”
Iran will have to act in revenge, in order to maintain credibility in the region and depending on how severe that is, the next step could spark all-out war.
Tehran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corp has to maintain credibility with its powerful proxy force Hezbollah in Lebanon and beyond by avenging Haniyeh’s death.
Israel’s air defences and troops on the border with Lebanon, over which thousands of Hezbollah fighters are ready for battle are now on extremely high-alert for a reaction.
Israel and Iran had an unprecedented exchange of strikes on each other's soil in April after Israel hit Iran's embassy in Damascus, but until now that aggression has been on hold.
Locally Hamas could pull out of negotiations for a ceasefire and hostage release deal in the war in Gaza, which was making progress.
And the killing could enflame already heightening tensions between Israel and Iran's powerful Lebanese ally Hezbollah following the weekend rocket attack that killed 12 young people in the Israeli-controlled Golan Heights.
Tensions were already ramped up hours before the Tehran strike when Israel carried out a rare strike in Beirut killing the Hezbollah commander Fouad Shukur.
If he is indeed dead that was also a major body blow as he was the right hand man of Hezbollah leader Hassan Nasrallah, sometimes dubbed the “Shia bin Laden.”
There have been fears of an Israeli ground incursion into Lebanon to battle Hezbollah and further strikes - but Israel may have calculated on the two major assassinations instead.
As a violent and decisive gesture both killings are enormous in ramping up regional tensions and the next few days could see a regional war breaking out.
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