[Skybird]

I hope that Meggle's essay will be translated into English, like his formidable Iran-essay was translated some weeks after the German first publishing, too. I just red it again, and noted that that early quoick-reading led me to misunderstand several details. I therefore must say that I agree with his situational analysis very much, leaving out all ethical and moral implications.

I repeatedly said that this war is not about two missing soldiers, but about destroying the thread potential of Hezbollah, and destroying any infrastructure that could lead to ressuplying Hezbollah via Syria or Iran.

I still do not like the minor and imo inadequate action on the ground, and think that they massively underestimated the capacities of Hezbollah. And that is very alarming: that there enemy was able to gain that firepower under the eyes of Mossad - and Mossad not realizing it. Hope the western authorities learn a lesson from this. Between 10 and 20 thousand troops are involved, they say - if I would have a say there, a general mobilization of all available reservists nationwide would have been finished three weeks ago, and minimum 100 thousand troops would be standing in Southern Lebanon right now, turning every rock, while artillery and airforce would be flattening every hilltop and filling every valley over there, until it all is smooth and even.

However, as Meggle argues, if the Israelis succeed in destroying most of Hezbollah'S arsenal, prevent their ressuply by destroying all infrastructure - and then get an international force being stationed there, the operation would be a huge success even if it fails to bring home two soldiers or wiping out Hezbollah or is even strenghtening their political and manpower support - all the latter factors are of no real strategic importance. Decisive is only that Iran cannot strike back via Hezbollah and open a second front in Israel in case Iran gets attacked. That's what it is about.

I wrote some days ago that the lebanon war in a way already is a war against Iran. Meggle's longterm strategy analysis confirms that view. I expected a war against Iran for reasons of the inner dynamic of the situation and the logic that drives both sides into the directions of their own national interests. The Lebanon war is the last signal I needed to be convinced by now that despite the high risk and questionable chance of success in killing the nuke program of iran by military means, a war against Iran and probably also Syria already is a decided issue. the UN has not really a say in this, it is a musical instrument that the solists are masterfully playing on. when Annan condemns Israel and demands an international force being deployed - he probably helps to fulfill Israel's strategical goal in this operation: getting Hezbollah out of range, and getting Western armies to guide their flanks against Iranian retaliation once the Iran issue gets hot.

It's all a chessboard out there.

Poor Kofi. If his brain would be made of chocolate, he wouldn't have enough to fill a smartie, but he's proud like a little boy to be the secretary general of at least "something". And if he doesnt get his will - he stomps his feet. Buy him a limo, he might get thirsty!