One of Russia's best-defended structures to be destroyed this spring, says Ukraine: 'It's inevitable'
The Ukrainian Secret Service says it will blow up the Crimean bridge in the first six months of 2024, destroying the symbol of Russia's occupation of the peninsula. Two previous attempts to take out the bridge previously succeeded only partially. "Third time, good time" seems to be the motto at GUR headquarters in Kyiv. After two previous attempts to blow up the 18 kilometre bridge between occupied Crimea and the Russian mainland, the Ukrainian Secret Service wants to finish the job for good before July. This is what senior military officers of the GUR are already saying in interviews with the British newspaper The Guardian. According to them, the eventual destruction of the bridge is "inevitable," since in addition to being an important supply line for the Russian military, it is also - and above all - the symbol of the Russian occupation. Russia began construction of the bridge across the Kerch Strait two years after the illegal annexation of Crimea. The road section was festively opened by President Vladimir Putin in April 2018, the rail section in December 2019. The construction at the time cost more than 225 billion rubles, converted to the exchange rate at the time about 3.5 billion euros.
Back in October 2022, the bridge was targeted a first time, then, according to Russia, with a bomb in a passing truck. Several bridge sections fell into the water, and both the rail and highway could not be used for months. In July 2023, the road bridge was attacked with naval drones, requiring repairs for months again. How Ukraine will attempt to blow up the bridge this time remains unknown for now. In recent weeks, Ukraine has been regularly attacking targets up to more than 1,000 kilometres from the border with drones. So the distance from the front, 250 kilometres, seems to pose little problem in itself. A bigger question is whether Ukraine has the resources to attack the bridge. Drones are unlikely to suffice: the work of art is currently one of the best defended Russian structures, just because of its important value and previous attempts. Both anti-aircraft systems and physical barriers in the sea should help repel attacks.
Earlier, therefore, Kyiv looked primarily to the German Taurus cruise missiles as the most high-performance means of taking the bridge under fire. That one, thanks to its powerful warhead, could theoretically both pierce the road surface and blast the bridge piers of reinforced concrete. In a telephone conversation leaked by Russia, senior German officers discussed in late February how 10 to 20 Taurus missiles might be enough to destroy the bridge. Yet, GUR officers assure that they do already possess "most of the means necessary to carry out the objective." Thus, the successful campaign to take out more and more ships from the Russian Black Sea Fleet and force the rest of the Russian Navy to withdraw further and further from Crimea are a prelude to the ultimate grand prize, they say. The plan is said to be co-authored by intelligence chief Kyrylo Budanov and approved by President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Among other things, the sinking of the large landing ship Sergey Kotov in March, using ten Ukrainian Magura V5 naval drones filled with explosives, was allegedly a so-called "shaping operation" or preparation, according to the GUR. The Sergey Kotov was sailing south of the Crimean Bridge at the time of the attack.
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