ZDF Analysis: Russia can maintain the war at its current level for another 2-3 years. that would meet my estimation - or wild guess
- that Ruissia, before the assault on Ukraine, was able to fight wars up to half a decade long.
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(...) At the moment, the Russian war economy seems to be able to compensate for the worn-out material. According to research by ZDF, Russia is unable to increase its current combat power - but the supplies are sufficient to maintain the current troop strength. Tanks are currently a major point of wear for Russia. Although Russia can draw on a huge stock of old Soviet machines, these need to be modernised and refurbished in order to be suitable for front-line operations. And even the stockpile from Soviet days cannot compensate for endless losses.
Russia has lost more tanks in the Ukraine war than the active tank fleet had at the beginning of the invasion in February 2022, writes ZDF. Russia can send 80 to 120 tanks to the front per month to compensate for this, with only 15 to 20 of these being new. The rest are modernised Soviet vehicles from the Cold War. According to current estimates, this production rate cannot be increased, as Russia has reached its maximum tank output.
The two tank plants, one in Nizhny Tagil for new production and one in Chita for tank repairs, are working at full capacity. Although it would theoretically be possible to build new plants, this would take years. At the current rate of wear and tear, Russia could theoretically hold out for another two to three years and maintain its current level of supply. (...)