[Skybird]

I say: if not dramatically more material support reaches Ukraine, then it is doomed to fall. Paroles and wishful daydreams, symbolic acts like beginning EU engotiations and endlessly repeatding how soldiareic the West is, mean nothing. The deed is what counts, and the deed is done by managing to bring more support to Ukraine then it alraedy has gotten so far.

Ukraine does not need these negotiations. They will lead nowhere for many, many years to come. What it needs is weapons, weapons, weapons, and ammo for them.

And if this does not come from American arsenals, then I do not know where it should come from. Which is a risk for the US, since it must also plan for the war over Taiwan, if it is serious over its committment there.

Also, the Ukraine must be brought into shape and given allowance to use such weapons on key infrastructure and industrial targets deep inside Russia. You want to win a war against an enemy state? You must bring down its logistic supply chains for the war.

How Ukraine should solve its demogrpohcis and recruitement problems, which gets bigger from month to month, I have no idea. The problem already affects the military operations right now. It degrades morale and human will of the soldiers in the trenches.


Russian production of drones and missiles now outclasses that of NATO, in numbers, and that of Ukraine. Iranian drones now get produced in license in Russia, they do it much faster than the Iranians could ever do it. Loitering amo of Russia now is suerior to that used by Ukraine, both in numbers and qulaity. Zalushnji has relatively openly admitted that. They strike deep into the West of Ukraine, and go after strategic targets.



I am tired of rewaidng dand hearing that russia cnanot do this and cannot maintain that. Its beyonsd me that Russia still is beign underestimated and that it is not recognized that it has learned and adapts. The wa rof high losses is the war what the Russian army always ahs trained, and what its tanks are build for, very different to that of Western design philosophy. Most of the Western armour , most of those Bradlkey sand Marders and Lepard-2s seem to be down now. Unfortunately Putin did not promise too much when he predicted they would burn as good as just any other tank. And nione fo those armorued paltforms has antgi-.drone capabilities. The rsusian have air superioreity now. And the battlefield is totally transparent to both sides, everybody sees everything as soon as it moves.



Ukraine has not yet lost, but it cannot win this way, that much is certain. And the offensive - was a very costly DESASTER, costing it much of its best troops and equipment. For a dent 10x12km in the Russian frontline, not more. This year, if looking at the full frontlof 1200km, Russian and Uktianain territorial gaisn all were minor, menaignless if viewed at indioviodually, and if adding them up, the aolmost nullified each other. Its a stalemate, with Ukraine'S supply situation beign threateningly bad, and that of Russia constanlty imrpoivned and alraeyd being much better than that of Ukraine. Means: what is a stalemate now must not stay to be a stalemate for ever, sooner or later the situation will tip in Russia's favour if Ukraine does not get dramatically- DRAMATICALLY - more material supply and solves its recruitment problem.



No European nation is either willing nor capable to repeat the material supply of the past 18 months. Currently the signs cannot be gonroed that war fatugue is spreaidng in European capitals, and hat governments try to avoid sending more. Biden is more concerjed in telling ukraine what it is nto asllwoed to do with its wepaons, and the 20-30 ATACMS of first generation that it got, are almost all spent in combat to take out Russia's helicopters.



Nowe the hpe is on the F-16, and while it will be useful, it is no wonder weapon that will all by itself change the war. Also, to bring its strength out in all force it dpends on beign embedded into the NAOT doctrine of warfare and embedded in the system of combined arms and interlinked sensors. The Ukraine seems to be overburdened with these demands, we saw durign the ofegfsnbiove, they lack the ability to brign all what they were trained in in the West to count in combat, also, the ylack thre technical equipment. The Vipoersd will be sueful, but not as useful as they would be if they would be opeating within a NATO framework of operations. They will fight with one wing bound on their backs, so to speak. Which will still deliver some combat value. Its a very versatile fighting bird. But neither invulnerable nor invincible. And Russian loitering ammunition all over Ukraine will spy for and chase its ground bases.