Quote:
Originally Posted by Skybird
So, that is 12-23 months away. Until then Ukrainians must throw stones. If the Russians do not get that it might be a good idea to attack that factory. They have taken out much of the former defence industry in Ukraine - why not this one, too? Until then Ukrainians must throw stones.
Also, producing "tens of thousands" of shells per year is not enough. There were phase sin this war when both sides fired tens of thousands of shells PER DAY. Russia fired up to 30,000.
The NYT reported in Septembre, a high ranking US defence politician told them Russia produced 100 tanks per year before the war. Now they do 200 per year, growing. From early next year on, Russia will produce 2 million artillery shells. And they still build new additonal production capacities for that. By the end of the year 2024 they could have the potential to produce 2.8-3 million per year.
The ammunition order set by the Bundeswehr youi mentioned. 150,000 shells. Since the order was placed hilariously late, the Germans had to line up at the end of the line. They will get the first shells in a couple of years. And finally - 150,000 rounds? WTF...?
No, all this is no sign for a substantial leanring and adaptation process. Its just alibi politics. How comes that Russia can adapot so mucn better than the economcially superior West - depsite the 11 sanction programs? How comes that Iran could become one of the globe's leading drone suppliers, although hitech imporets also are heavily sanctioned? And what does this tell us about the success of sanctions to prevent them from getting the bomb?
The time there may have been, was headlesslywasted, casrelessly thrown out of the window. By Zelensky ignroiugn the threat, but after the war started: by the West as well. Now the Russians are in a war prodction lead where we maybe can no longer catch up with them again. It was just in the nws the past couple fo days, american defence companies all have shrunk their output, they cannot keep up with the orders, the production capacity is not fit for the volume of orders. Means: neither the US (with its eyes also on China and Taiwan) nor Europe can produce in time the ammounts needed even if they would want to. If the will would be there, the capacity could be boosted, thouzgh not without problems. But until that boosting effort would pay off, 2-5 years would pass.
What does Ukraine until then...?
Time is Russia's best ally now. Also because the West very obviously becomes war-weary.
|
When we ourselves are at war there is different legislation. In times of war, the government may become directive to the private sector. Then vehicles can be requisitioned and you can prioritize resources. That is all covered in our legislation. In peacetime, it is more difficult that is certainly true of the new member states on the eastern flank, which left the Soviet Union. Those have written their constitutions so sharply that peacetime military personnel are not able to do the things they are allowed to do in wartime. They need a formal declaration of war, so to speak. There is more room in Western Europe, but there is not always the political will there to push through.
When it comes to stocks, in recent years we in the West have looked only at efficiency. Spending as little money as possible, just in time, just enough. Our whole liberal economy is based on that. That means you maximize your productive capacity, and in doing so, it becomes as cheap as possible. That's fine for cell phones and toilet paper, but it doesn't work in wartime for military equipment. What we need to do is get our economy into a kind of wartime economy. That is legally difficult. In some countries, governments own or partially own the defence industry. There the government can put more direct pressure. In the Netherlands and Germany, it is a discussion between government, industry and financiers to invest in production capacity. And that all takes far too long.
We are in day 646 of a three-day war and that alone shows what an incredible feat the Ukrainians have done, with a country much smaller than Russia. Ukraine will not collapse in three days, personally think that this war could go on for another 5 to 10 years.