SUBSIM Radio Room Forums - View Single Post - Here we go again-Ukraine once again pt2

Skybird · 11-21-23, 08:24 AM

Lets again look beyond the glossy hipphipphooray videos. This is the sober as ever Colonel Reisner.

https://www.n-tv.de/mediathek/videos...e24544032.html

He explains that the early fog of this season of the year allowed Ukrainian soldiers to cross the Dnjepr in concealment and Russians drones could not see the the small tiny boats. Ukraine has established some small pockets of forces that have not been really tested by the Russians so far, and they even brought a few armoured vehicles over. The terrain they are in is formerly flooded terrain, and Ukraine has shown to be unable to break out beyond this flooding bassin. The Colonel seems to be sceptical about the heavy relevance of all this, and rates it more as sort of a PR stunt by which the Ukraine tries to hold up its relevance in the international media and perception of the world, to appear as still being able to run military offensive operations, not to get lost behind the Middle East crisis. In other words, its about giving the West signals that it still is a good idea to give material support to Ukraine while the scepticism especially in the English-tongued press asks more and more questions on whether its worth it to continue. So, the military importance of the Dnjepr crossing so far is minor, its more about giving a proof of freedom to act to the Western donators. Ukraine has not been able to make anything more of it so far. There has been no breaching and certainly no breakthrough. The bridgehead currently is vulnerable, since Ukraine cannot really supply it in numbers, there are no solid bridges and no ponton bridges that would be needed to supply it reliably (I assume since these would be seen they would come under immediate Russian artillery fire). Reisner finally reasons about that Ukraine seems to approach its culmination point in this war. This culmination point is defined and gets decided by whether or not the West not only continues but massively increases its material support to Ukraine, not just with ammo, but also new weapons. If the West does not fundamentally raises its support beyond what was given so far, Ukraine will need to cut back on its goals and will not be able to maintain the continuation of its war objectives as defined so far.

I never hid my scepticism in this thread. And I seem to perceive that Reisner's scepticism has risen further over the past months as well. He just does not waste time with explicitly voicing it, he just says: if we do this and do not do that, it will have this and that consequences. Of all militaries advising the TV shows and newspapers on the situation, he really stands out. Follies like "Ukraine will retake Crimea by the end of the year" (Hodges) are unthinkable to be said by him, nor does he support any sort of political propanda or wanted narration. Good man! A studied historian and commander of their Vienna Guards and some tactical analysis think tank and training board.

Unfortunately, almost all European politicians refuse to listen to the few warning voices of sober reason out there. The dreamdancing continues. By our rejection of investing what is needed in investements, we put Ukraine on the track to defeat. Always too little, and always late, is our motto.

I am also worried about the iopinion rifts inside NATO governments, and what it means for NATO's worth in case that indeed NATO's article 5 would be called out. My trust in the alliance's security guarantees has clearly suffered in the past 18 months. If I were living in the Baltic, I would be very seriously worried.

The German finance ministry has just locked down the budget and the spending options of all ministries, its a capital fiscal crisis over here. Over 200 billions are missing in their budget. That indicates something about the German financial ability to stand by its bigmouthed words about defending its Eastern neighbours and supporting Ukraine - the material impossibiulities not even taklen into account (production capacities, demography).

I lean myself out of th window and say it loud and clear: regarding germany: Baltic states, you are on your own, dont count on us.

11-21-23, 08:24 AM	#1777
Skybird Soaring Join Date: Sep 2001 Location: the mental asylum named Germany Posts: 42,680 Downloads: 10 Uploads: 0	Lets again look beyond the glossy hipphipphooray videos. This is the sober as ever Colonel Reisner. https://www.n-tv.de/mediathek/videos...e24544032.html He explains that the early fog of this season of the year allowed Ukrainian soldiers to cross the Dnjepr in concealment and Russians drones could not see the the small tiny boats. Ukraine has established some small pockets of forces that have not been really tested by the Russians so far, and they even brought a few armoured vehicles over. The terrain they are in is formerly flooded terrain, and Ukraine has shown to be unable to break out beyond this flooding bassin. The Colonel seems to be sceptical about the heavy relevance of all this, and rates it more as sort of a PR stunt by which the Ukraine tries to hold up its relevance in the international media and perception of the world, to appear as still being able to run military offensive operations, not to get lost behind the Middle East crisis. In other words, its about giving the West signals that it still is a good idea to give material support to Ukraine while the scepticism especially in the English-tongued press asks more and more questions on whether its worth it to continue. So, the military importance of the Dnjepr crossing so far is minor, its more about giving a proof of freedom to act to the Western donators. Ukraine has not been able to make anything more of it so far. There has been no breaching and certainly no breakthrough. The bridgehead currently is vulnerable, since Ukraine cannot really supply it in numbers, there are no solid bridges and no ponton bridges that would be needed to supply it reliably (I assume since these would be seen they would come under immediate Russian artillery fire). Reisner finally reasons about that Ukraine seems to approach its culmination point in this war. This culmination point is defined and gets decided by whether or not the West not only continues but massively increases its material support to Ukraine, not just with ammo, but also new weapons. If the West does not fundamentally raises its support beyond what was given so far, Ukraine will need to cut back on its goals and will not be able to maintain the continuation of its war objectives as defined so far. I never hid my scepticism in this thread. And I seem to perceive that Reisner's scepticism has risen further over the past months as well. He just does not waste time with explicitly voicing it, he just says: if we do this and do not do that, it will have this and that consequences. Of all militaries advising the TV shows and newspapers on the situation, he really stands out. Follies like "Ukraine will retake Crimea by the end of the year" (Hodges) are unthinkable to be said by him, nor does he support any sort of political propanda or wanted narration. Good man! A studied historian and commander of their Vienna Guards and some tactical analysis think tank and training board. Unfortunately, almost all European politicians refuse to listen to the few warning voices of sober reason out there. The dreamdancing continues. By our rejection of investing what is needed in investements, we put Ukraine on the track to defeat. Always too little, and always late, is our motto. I am also worried about the iopinion rifts inside NATO governments, and what it means for NATO's worth in case that indeed NATO's article 5 would be called out. My trust in the alliance's security guarantees has clearly suffered in the past 18 months. If I were living in the Baltic, I would be very seriously worried. The German finance ministry has just locked down the budget and the spending options of all ministries, its a capital fiscal crisis over here. Over 200 billions are missing in their budget. That indicates something about the German financial ability to stand by its bigmouthed words about defending its Eastern neighbours and supporting Ukraine - the material impossibiulities not even taklen into account (production capacities, demography). I lean myself out of th window and say it loud and clear: regarding germany: Baltic states, you are on your own, dont count on us. __________________ If you feel nuts, consult an expert. Last edited by Skybird; 11-21-23 at 08:40 AM.