Quote:
Originally Posted by Dargo
In reality, it's all covered in Ukrainian blood, but Ukraine won against all odds, and continues to WIN against Russia, a million times stronger enemy with so much more resources.
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Right now Ukraine wins battles while loosing the war in the long game. And Russia suffers high losses that nevertheless are not sufficiently high enough to stop it from winning the war in said long run.
Ukraine got where it is today due to the weapon deliveries from the US, which by trend are declining since months, and from Europe, which also cannot be repeated like they were one year ago.
I want Ukraine to win as much as you do. But I also know that without the material support from the West Ukraine cannot win. And we already
did not give them what they needed already in the past months, we gave only too much to die while it was too little to live and win. What leads you to assume that this pattern all of a sudden will change against the odds and against the economic realities?
Ukraine still can win. But then it would need much more material than it got in the whole past 21 months together. Or in the words of Colonel Reisner: every day a fully loaded supply train with ammo would need to arrive in Ukraine. Plus an awesome lot of tanks. Plus aircraft. Plus sophisticated electronics. And weapons. And it must rain men in Ukraine that they can recruit. They run out of men. Those who still live, are often since months and motnhs in constant action, they must be worn out, they mist be done, and disillusionised. They are no superhumans, you know.
Wishful thinking does not win wars. Nor do pathetic propaganda videos.
The most likely scenairo as I see it at the rpesent: in second half of 2024 Ukraine will be willing, with tight lips, to negotiate terms with Russia, because it simply has no other choice. And Russia will keep huge chunks of what it has bitten out of Ukraine. Until the West sends tremendous and decisive ammounts of weapons, amo, evertyhing - much more than so far. MUCH MORE THAN SO FAR. And now the hundred million dollar question: what nation, including the US, is economically, financially, materially and last but not least: politically capable to do that? No matter who wins the US elecitons, the US will most likely drastically cut back aid to Ukraine. Trump because he wants it, Biden because he cannot overocme the internal resistence anymore. No, I do not see the big miracle happening anymore. Europe babbles itself to death instead.
And since you quoted the Germans, Dargo, the Germans babble a lot. They are just not capable to put military deeds to where their way too big babblemouth is. German "security guarantees" are worth sh!+, Germany is not capable to serve them.