Quote:
Originally Posted by Skybird
Russia must not win offensives it further mounts. It just must hang on to what it has already occupied. The defences of these have stopped the Ukrainian offensive, and the failed offensive 2023 will hardly ever be repeatable again, material-wise. With what would Ukriane do it? It will not et sucha moutn dsof materia., again, and it lacks even more recruits in the forseeable future, than there were in winter and spring this year.
Next year will be easier for Russia than this year was. This year was easier for Russia than last year. For Ukraine, it was exactly the other way around.
Its a dicatorship in Russia, not a democracy. Its easier to simply use a command top down to deal with the hardship of war. The majority of Russian people support the war, I red some weeks ago. Again: the majority of the civil Russian population was reported back then to support the war. Unbelievable, but still... There will be no revolution or uprise in Russia.
Wishful thinking leads nowhere. The support volume from the West that Ukraine would need to win the war, I do not see materialising, no matter who wins the US elections. And European nations alone will not be capable or willing to do it. We have now 21 months of experience with how the West handles the war. And these 21 months of experience are not encouraging. Wishful thinking dominates the perception and decision making. Wishful thinking will not win the war.
There is a lack of political will and determination in the West to really win the war and see Russia lose it. In fact the West is afraid of Russia loosing it. And Paris and Berlin do not want Ukraine to clearly win it.
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The West is perceived to be dragging its feet when it comes to the weapons needed to quickly eject Russia from occupied territory. But like I said I don’t think a quick end is the West’s objective. You mentioned long ago states don’t extend themselves unless it benefits them. Look at Haiti it’s a toilet bowl that nobody is interested in helping because it has absolutely nothing to offer the benefactor.
In order to understand what the future of Ukraine is I think we first need to understand what the West’s motives are for supporting Ukraine, in other words what’s in it for us? Freedom and democracy? Liberating Donbass? Sure it might be nice if it happened but it’s hardly the primary objective. Crimea probably is though in order to control the Black Sea, and gaining access to all those natural resources in Central Asia and don’t forget pipelines baby. To get that we need to drain Russia’s military and political influence and with China on the other side we need to secure Ukraine as a spring board to projecting into Eurasia. I just don’t see us going anywhere or abandoning that, it’s just too important of an opportunity.
With western assistance, Ukraine just needs to make it so untenable that Russia soldiers give up, pack up and go home so they can get something to eat and stay warm. Given time Donbass might even just get fed up enough and want to come back into the fold all on its own too. Ya never know.