Quote:
Originally Posted by Skybird
Regardless of the propaganda put out by RT and HT, I have come to believe that Ukraine's successes in the Robotyne fighting have been overestimated in the West. Kiev has not managed to make strategic capital out of what happened at Robotyne or to make any further gains that would be significant in terms of Kiev's stated war aims. How could it be otherwise. Ukraine is increasingly struggling with depleting human resources that cannot be compensated for, and in addition, the quantitatively massive shortage supply from the West does not appear in any way sufficient to comprehensively protect Ukraine's critical infrastructure against air attacks or to conduct further offensive operations on the ground of strategic-operational importance. A possible failure of power supply in Wnter would also mean the collapse of defense production in the country.
Or, in short, Ukraine's offensive has petered out, Russia has survived it for this time. For two or three weeks I was blinded by the news from Robotyne - my mistake. My current assessment follows the pessimistic view I took before Robotyne.The big difference is simple: Russia can afford its high losses. Ukraine cannot. And Russia, in my estimation, is far from collapsing economically. Claims to the contrary are, in my view, Western wishful thinking.
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Russia lost more since the last week's numbers they can not resupply or produce the fighting is not over maybe paused because of the weather every day Russia will and are losing large numbers of equipment. Even foreign supplies will not help Russia, what they fired in the past will not come back, Russia does not have the barrels for it. Russia spends now more than a third on this war with failing exports that money runs out at a time their economy is in decline. Ukraine has more allies Russia is mostly on its own China will not really help it and for Iran North Korea those are not the big players. If I have to bet I still place my bet on Ukraine.