[Skybird]

https://kyivindependent.com/uk-defen...es-in-ukraine/

https://twitter.com/DefenceHQ/status...17177497944065

Russia has likely started forming major new formations over the last two months to "add depth to its ground forces" in Ukraine, the U.K. Defense Ministry said in its latest intelligence report on Aug. 2.
However, Moscow is unlikely to find enough troops for even one new army without a fresh wave of mandatory mobilization, London believes.
The strategy to build new and self-sufficient formations, such as the 25th Combined Arms Army, is a major shift in Moscow's approach toward using its reserves, the U.K. Defense Ministry commented.

New laws just days ago have prepared the road for that needed widening of mandatory mobilzation.

In this context, my bad feelings about how the war is going, are deepening. While the Ukrainian offensive won in pace, one still is hesitent to speak of "pace", and territorial gains remain to be minor. While they try to move southwards and on Melitopol or the coast south-east of it, they do not get off their spot in reasonable time: roughly 10 km in 8 weeks does not sound encouraging regarding the change of seasons and the passing of time. Time is working against Ukraine. Its main weakness still exists: no real air defence at the front, and it exposes its mechanised units to dramatic Russian air strikes. So they must work their way in small infantry units. That works, okay, but it works slowly and does not rally own combat forces in signfiicant numers in range of the first defence line without beign seen and immediately getting under fire from artillery, drones, gunships and fixed wing CAS.

I am far from being convinced that they can break through that defence zone the Russians were given months of time by Europe to establish. I fear this offensive sooner or later gets stuck, and the front and the war get "frozen".

And that means the Europeans and likely also the Us will start to seriously press Ukraine into accepting territorial losses and agreeing to negotiations that will for the Russians acchieve right this: territorial gains.

I should not feel angry about this, but I do: I predicted this outcome already last year, before summer. I said that in the second half of 2023 the war likely will freeze and Ukraine will start feeling the pressure by the West to accept negotiations - mounting pressure on Ukraine by delivering less and lesser stuff Ukraine needs to continue the war. I mentioned the psychological tiring of the Western public. And its real. Putin knows that, and calculates with it. He is in for the long game now. We are still not. After one and a half year, we are still not.

Thats the sober outlook, the currently most likely scenario, in my view at least. Emotionally, I am anything but sober about this. I see this absolutely as a proxy war by the West, it always was, and its about turning into just another defeat, another war the West has lost ONCE AGAIN. We have become experts in loosing wars and interventions.

I want the support continuing and intensifiying. But I also have no clue where it should come from. And I doubt that it will happen. The Abrams and the Leopard-1s that are still to come, will not make a decisive difference. We should send them, yes, absolutely - but we better should not put our expectations high.


We demanded the Ukraine to give us an offensive while we did not give it what it needed: too few tanks and IFVs and artillery and espoecially too little air defence and no air power. We see what we deserve to see. Ukraine pays the price. Russia can mobilise manpower reserves with which the Ukraine cannot compete. The longer this war last, the more this will come into play. And Putin? Putin needs the war, his interest is not to end it, but to keep it running, that is what he benefits from. Peace now is something that would most likely deal him his polticla and biological death sentence.