That Ukraine launched the biggest attack of this offensive is clear, but is this the attack?
After months of minimal ground gain, Ukraine appears to have made a significant breakthrough in the south. In the Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine suddenly penetrated kilometres through the front line. Whether this is the prelude to the main attack, however, remains to be seen. Ukrainian President Zelensky was pleased in his daily address on Wednesday evening. In a small aside at the end, he focused attention on the battlefield: 'By the way, our boys at the front have achieved very good results today. Well done. More details will follow later.' It was a remarkably optimistic message after weeks in which Ukraine had to reluctantly admit that the long-awaited offensive was not delivering what many might have hoped: large-scale recapture of occupied territory. Here and there a village was brought back under Ukrainian rule, terrain gains were measured at most in hectometres.
But that seems to have changed this week. Russia reported on Wednesday that Ukraine had launched a large-scale attack in the Zaporizhzhia region. With at least 100 armoured vehicles, Ukraine reportedly attempted to break through the lines, the Russians claimed to have repelled the attacks. The Ukrainians, as so often, maintained silence, but Pentagon sources told US media they had heard from the Ukrainians that this was the main attack of the offensive. Whether that is indeed the case is not certain. What is certain, however, is that this is the largest attack of the offensive so far, says Frans Osinga, professor of military science at Leiden University: 'If the reports are correct, Ukraine has steamed up 2.5 to 5 kilometres. Then we are talking about significant ground gains.' The advance took place towards Robotyne. It is the provisional culmination of a two-month-long war of attrition, Osinga said: 'In recent times, Ukraine has mainly tried to undermine Russian defensive capabilities.' Ukraine eliminated heavy Russian equipment with sustained artillery attacks, cleared minefields and went down trench by trench to defuse Russian infantry. Osinga: 'In this way, Ukraine also tried to discover where weaknesses are in the Russian defences. Ukraine has been very careful with its reserves and the Western equipment they have been supplied with.' So while there now seems to be talk of at least a major attack, Ukraine is still cautious, Osinga thinks: 'There are now reports that they have deployed three battalions. That makes one brigade. Ukraine has nine brigades trained and armed by the West. When the real main attack is deployed, expect several brigades deployed with hundreds of armoured vehicles.' Reports vary, but the deployment of German Leopard tanks and US Bradley combat vehicles seemed to be somewhere between 30 and 40. Moreover, says Osinga, you would need to see a much larger logistical operation in the rear, such as trucks delivering ammunition and other supplies. Without a slick logistics operation, any offensive is doomed to failure.
Should the current attack do form part of the main attack, the Zaporizhzhia region is not an illogical location for it. Stepping up to Melitopol which is near the Sea of Azov is a scenario that military analysts have frequently mentioned prior to the offensive. If Ukraine manages to pull that off, it drives a wedge between southwestern Ukraine and Crimea on one side and the Donbas on the other. The Russian logistics operation will then be severely disrupted. The only supply route with Crimea by road would then be across the Crimean Bridge, which connects the occupied peninsula on the eastern side with the Russian mainland. That bridge was attacked by Ukraine last year and last week. Osinga also considers other scenarios. This week's large-scale attacks could also be an attempt to provoke a Russian response: 'Maybe they want to see where Russia will commit its reserves.' It would then also give Ukraine opportunities in other places along the front line. 'Also around Bakhmut, Ukraine has gained ground bit by bit. We should not downplay those successes. Since Russia left Kherson, the conquest of Bakhmut has been the only success. If Ukraine manages to recapture it, it will mean a big symbolic gain over Russia.'
The likelihood of a main attack coming soon seems high. Ukraine has an interest in this in several ways besides gaining territory. Osinga: 'If substantial territory is captured, it is a signal to the Russians: look what we can do with Western equipment. And it is also a signal to the West: keep supplying us with your equipment.' The problem, however, is that you can only launch the main attack once: 'Once you commit to the main attack, you can't go back. You want to keep the Russians in limbo for as long as possible.' According to Osinga, it remains a question of patience. While many in the West may have hoped for Russia's quick expulsion from occupied territory, Ukraine has always had a longer term in mind. 'If it does not succeed this year, this offensive could be a prelude to next year's offensive. Then Ukraine will have to go into the winter with a good starting position,' Osinga said.
The West has already provided Ukraine with a lot of equipment, but large quantities of shells and fighter jets, for example, will not be delivered until next spring at the earliest. F-16s would allow Ukraine to conquer territory faster. Currently, Ukraine still relies on cluster munitions, among other things, supplied by the United States. That ammunition is controversial because unexploded parts can also cause civilian casualties at a later stage. Osinga does see its initial effects on the battlefield: 'With one shell you can cover an entire football field. That's an effective way to take out infantrymen.' Western countries lean much more on air superiority, says Osinga: 'You pulverise the whole battlefield from the air. You can also protect your own troops better. Ukraine does not have that luxury.'
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