[Skybird]

Russia's war of aggression is hitting Ukraine hard. Thousands of civilians and even more soldiers have been killed, and its economic strength has been severely damaged. Reconstruction will take years and cost hundreds of billions. This does not even take into account what will probably be the worst long-term consequence: the depopulation of the country.

The war has radically worsened Ukraine's demographic crisis, which the country has faced since it declared independence in 1991, and will lead to a severe labor shortage after the war ends. This is the conclusion of a study by the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (WIIW). Regardless of how long the war lasts, Ukraine is unlikely to ever recover demographically from its consequences, the study's author, Maryna Tverdostup, maintains.

At the time of the invasion last February, Ukraine had 41.8 million registered residents. But by 2040, the population will shrink by one-fifth to 35 million, she adds. The decline in the working-age population is expected to be the most severe and consequential.

The destruction remains "The bloodletting of the population due to the war will severely affect the reconstruction and economic recovery of the country for years," says Tverdostup. This is because there are simply not enough people "to clean up the destruction and get the economy going again." This is especially true in the eastern and southeastern regions of the country, which have been hardest hit by the war.

In particular, the heavy outflow of well-educated women could cement the population loss for a long time to come. Women of working and childbearing age made up 70 percent of the adult refugees. Children and adolescents who left with them accounted for one-third of those who fled.

Surveys in Germany, Great Britain and Austria show that around half of the many millions of refugees who have fled to the West are considering staying for the long term. The rate is higher the longer the refugees have been in the country, the better they speak the language of the host country and the further they are integrated into the labor market.
Fighting for returnees

This seems to confirm fears expressed months ago by Kiev central bank governor Andriy Pyshnyys: "We could lose the best of the best," he warned, urging, "We have to make sure we get our people back, we need them here."

According to Tverdostup's calculations, however, which according to the WIIW are uncharted scientific territory with her new forecasting model, things look bad. In the case of the best of the four demographic scenarios she has calculated - i.e., an end to the war before the end of this year - the country's population is likely to increase again from 2024 and reach its post-war peak of 37.8 million in 2030. But it will never return to the pre-war level of just under 42 million.

The worst-case scenario, on the other hand, assumes a long war until 2025. In that case, Ukraine would lose 7 million people and have only 35 million inhabitants in 2035. Emigration would remain high, and the number of returnees would be low. If young women emigrate and the old stay, this is bad for population development: fertility falls, mortality rises.

[Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung]


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That aims at the direction I hinted at when the Russian invaison was launched. The Ukraine could militarily win the war - and nevertheless loose it economically and demographically. The Wests helps to make this a certain outcome the more it sticks to policies that focus on "boiling the frog" instead of delivering what is needed to enforce an early decision on the battlefield. The longer this war lasts, the more destruction there will be, the more migration.

This is not to say we should make a deal with Russia over Ukriane. It means the opposite: that we must take off the gloves and leave the concerns behind.