Quote:
Originally Posted by Skybird
I think all these attacks still are probing attacks only, to find a tasty weak spot. Its like it was expected to be in the beginning.
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Ukraine says Russian troops withdrew further than previously thought from their now flooded defence lines. Up to 15 km. Toxic mud is said to flow down the stream and settle on the gropund to poison the water going into the Black sea for long time to come. The losses in fertile farming ground are catastrophic, the toxinbes wander with the ground water and so affect also areas not flooded. The UN - I think it was the UN - said the losses of harvestable grains could be in the billions of tons.
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Lieutenant-Colonel Tom Simoens (Royal Military School, Brussels) also said this morning he could deduce from the reports "with a certain degree of certainty" that the expected Ukrainian counteroffensive has begun. "It has been months since, from during the previous counter-offensives in the autumn of 2022, there was so much activity on the battlefield," he said. "The Russian sources may be colored, but they don't spread these reports for no reason either," Simoens said. Stepping up the attack now would also make the most sense from a Ukrainian point of view. "Since Monday, we already saw limited attacks with smaller numbers of soldiers and vehicles. Perhaps those were so-called 'probing attacks', small-scale attacks to 'test' Russian defenses. But it makes no sense to carry out those smaller attacks and then not follow through. So I don't expect them to slow down now."
At popular blog Wargonzo, it sounds that Ukraine deployed four battalions with at least 120 vehicles in its attacks last night. "After an immense artillery barrage (no exaggeration, it was really heavy, with Himars participating), four columns advanced towards our defensive lines, each with 25 to 30 vehicles." Tanks, aircraft and helicopters were also reportedly deployed in the process. Exactly how many brigades Ukraine is deploying is not yet clear. Perhaps not all troops and vehicles have yet been deployed, some of which are being held back as reserves anyway, and some of which will only be deployed in the later stages of the offensive to exploit the recaptured areas. Independent confirmation of the reports is also not yet available. Ukraine has maintained strict operational silence since this week to avoid harming the course of operations. According to the well-known Russian blog Wargonzo, most of last night's attacks were repelled "with heavy losses for Ukraine". Thus, images of Ukrainian armored cars and tanks are circulating, possibly involving Leopard 2 tanks from the West. Russian sources claim several tanks and vehicles were knocked out. In at least two places, Ukraine would have been able to force a breakthrough, though. The fortified positions would simply have been wiped out with artillery.
Still, Simoens warns that Ukrainian losses are also inevitable. "I expect thousands of casualties in the first days, including along the Ukrainian side. We are going to see destroyed Leopard tanks and US Bradley armored vehicles, and Russian propaganda channels are going to exploit those losses in an unprecedented way. Ukraine and the West need to prepare for that, but there is no other way. Offensives like this are the hardest thing in the world, no matter how hard Ukraine prepares. The Russians can set up a new minefield unseen at night, which Ukrainian tanks smash into in the morning. That is almost inevitable."
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