Dnieper crossing Ukraine striking, Russia can't ignore
News that Ukrainian soldiers have managed to cross the Dnieper River near Kherson has military analysts surprised. The Ukrainian operation is probably the first step of a larger plan, say former Commander of the Army Mart de Kruif and professor of war studies Frans Osinga. But exactly what that plan is remains guesswork for now - even if Russia should respond to it now. The US Institute for the Study of War reported yesterday that Ukrainian units have taken positions on the eastern bank of the Dnieper. That bank had previously been fully occupied by Russia. ISW relied on satellite images and information from Russian military bloggers. The units also reportedly rigged stable supply lines. Ukraine itself would not say anything about the operation. It is also unclear how many soldiers have made the crossing, and how long they have been there.
Crossing the Dnieper is quite a risk, says professor of war studies Frans Osinga. The river is about 600 meters wide at Kherson, and with every crossing you make yourself vulnerable. Especially given Ukraine's scarce capabilities, Osinga says it must have been a deliberate decision. So the question is what Ukraine is aiming at with the operation. Anyway, the Ukrainian presence on the eastern bank may help push Russian units further away from Kherson. Osinga: "The city was constantly bombarded by Russian artillery from November onwards, which prevented normal life from getting going there."
But whether that is the main reason? "I think you still have to think of something related to an offensive," says Mart de Kruif, former commander of the Land Forces. "Going over the Dnieper is not something you do lightly. To me, this is a side or mock attack, which can serve as a distraction or a starting point for further operations." Osinga also says this operation goes beyond the reconnaissance Ukraine previously conducted in the area. "This seems to be more permanent." The analysts stress that no conclusive answer can be given now as to what exactly Ukraine is planning. "The premise of being on that east bank is good, but that does not mean Ukraine is going to attack there," says De Kruif. In the swampy area with little infrastructure, that would not be obvious either. According to De Kruif, the action could be deception: attracting the Russians' attention here and then striking elsewhere. "Last year, Ukraine also hinted at an offensive near Kherson, upon which the Russians moved troops. Then Ukraine successfully struck in Kharkiv." That area is hundreds of kilometers away.
What is also striking at a glance at the map is the proximity of Crimea. Once you cross the Dnieper, it is still some 90 kilometers to the border with the peninsula, which was annexed by Russia back in 2014. Crossing the river is therefore a direct threat to Russia, says Osinga. "Russia cannot just ignore that. They have to do something with this." That pressure alone could be worth the effort, he says. "You have to see this as the first of several attacks where Ukraine is trying to find out where the Russians are weak," Osinga continues. The Institute for the Study of War, which was the first to report on the Dnieper crossing, argues that Russian units in the Kherson region are poorly organized and undermanned, especially now that better-trained soldiers are needed in other places. Osinga: "Russia is running up against the fact that the front is 1,000 kilometers long. You cannot put the most motivated and best-trained units everywhere." Whatever Ukraine is planning on the sly, it won't be easy. The Ukrainian soldiers crossed are in relatively inaccessible territory and with a 600-metre-wide river behind them. Quickly transferring more troops and pushing through is now impossible. "The logistics are very fragile," says Osinga. "It would be a risky undertaking to make this the base of your counteroffensive."
https://nos.nl/artikel/2472714-dnjep...d-niet-negeren