[Dargo]

Russia is taking into account the scenario that the counter-offensive will start here. That suspicion is fuelled by leaked intelligence documents from the Pentagon, which described that a Ukrainian brigade is being equipped with amphibious vehicles. The attack will begin as soon as the ground has dried up in southern Ukraine, allowing the tracked vehicles to run again, but ammunition supplies will be the deciding factor. Ammunition is the big issue, the last thing you want is to have to stop after a day because you have run out of ammunition. Then you run out of momentum, you have to have a robust stockpile if you want to start. Ukraine's spring offensive will not start until May or June at the earliest.

The Russians will have to prepare for every scenario. This is how it works-the attacker can choose where to attack, but the defender cannot choose where to defend. Ukraine will concentrate on one or two places with overwhelming superiority over the Russians, on land and in the air. It will not be easy to break through the Russian defense, Ukraine must first break in and then break through the line. If that succeeds, you can break out behind the line. But that could be a bloody and days-long battle. Any Russian who has to defend somewhere other than where Ukraine will start its offensive will not be deployed anywhere else.