[Skybird]

This analysis in FOCUS supports my scepticism. Things are not going too badly for Putin, thanks to active help from Berlin and Paris.

I say since long time both capitols do not want Ukriane in NATO and EU sinc ethat would come at the cost of their own power and influence. To give up that they are not ready. They prefer to sacrifice the Ukraine.

I was tempted to write somethign like "The fate of the Ukraine is sealed", but that maybe still would be a bit too premature. But things do not look good when even at least some of its acclaimed friends are workign against it. With friend slike these, I see no reason for optism.

Mind you, when Scholz went to the summit, he did so in the expectation that Biden would not deliver M1s. Bidne on his side had sent envoys to Kyiv and Moscow, tersting acceptance for kind of a peace plan or a plan for negotiations at least. Both sides said NO. And only then was when Biden changed his mind with Scholz already in midair, so to speak, to reverse his decision and send M1s. Scholz got caught on two wrong feet, completely surprised, for he planned to hide further behind America'S refusal, and from then on was pushed into the defensive. That the Germans still insist on that it all is done in mutual decision making and mutual understanding, is a lie the Germans must keep if they want to not get revealed as the big hesitators and delayers that they have been all the time: they are needed to be carried to every single decision they made, and they delayed that decision always for as long as they could.

Do not trust the Germans. Nor the French.

On a sidenote, Zelensky was asked a couple of days ago what he really thought about the German policy and support. He evaded and said that he could not honestly answer that question now - but one should ask him again after the war.

Right now I cannot bite the hand that feeds me, even if it is just that little bit, that meant.

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Two Ukraine revelations make clear what the West really wants


Two revelations put the Ukraine war in a new light: Selenskyj should finally be open to negotiations with Putin, demand Scholz and Macron. And: Germany would not have supplied Ukraine with tanks on its own. Support is dwindling.

There are now two revelations, and they reveal this: In confidential talks, the German chancellor urges the Ukrainian president to negotiate with Vladimir Putin. And he would not have delivered German battle tanks of his own accord either; that would have required the help of the Americans. In any case, unreserved help for Ukraine looks different.

One revelation comes from US President Joe Biden's security adviser. Jake Sullivan said on U.S. television that the Germans were only willing to supply Leopard tanks to Ukraine if the Americans supplied Abrams tanks. Biden eventually agreed to that - against the advice of his military officials, he said.

The German government finds this version - well: suboptimal. It supports the thesis that, contrary to what has been claimed, Olaf Scholz is not resolutely leading, but is above all resolutely hiding behind the Americans' backs. And that's not all: The German government had clearly denied that such a junction had ever existed. For it feeds the suspicion that the Chancellor does not trust the Americans to keep their NATO standby promise in the event of a Russian "escalation" into German territory. Therefore, a government spokesman now went into action.

Wolfgang Büchner, however, did not flatly deny the Sullivan versions, but wrapped them in absorbent cotton. This is common when a government wants to protect itself without hurting an ally. It sounds like this: "These were good, constructive talks in which care was always taken by both sides to come to a common approach." The decision was amicable between Washington and Berlin, he said.

Yes - what else? The fact that in the end such a decision is amicable does not say anything about what happened in the beginning. And in the beginning, Scholz stubbornly refused to send Leopards to Ukraine, just as he had refused to send Marder infantry fighting vehicles before. It always needed the push from the outside.

The New York Times already reported on this at the end of January: Biden had thus wanted to give Scholz political flank protection. There are several other solid sources for this. At the World Economic Forum (WEF) in Davos, the chancellor met with American senators. And they confirmed afterwards the junket that today Scholz wants nothing more to do with.

After his conversation with Scholz, Chris Coons, the Democratic senator from Biden's hometown of Delaware, said this: "If it's necessary to deliver some Abrams tanks to clear the way for Leopard tanks from Germany, Poland and other allies, I'm for it." If - then: a classic junket.

Now Sullivan, who spoke of the junket, is in permanent contact with his Ukrainian colleague Yermak, Selenskyj chief of office. So Selenskyj, it can be assumed, was aware of the deal - German Leos are only available if U.S. Abrams are also coming. Selenskyj met with Republican Senator Lindsey Graham shortly after the WEF, and he tweeted afterward, "To the Biden administration: send American tanks so others follow your lead."

And Graham's Democratic colleague Richard Blumenthal said this: "We should deliver the Abrams, then the Germans will also give up Leopard tanks to stop the Russian attack." Biden then demonstratively cleared the way for the Abrams, sending a powerful signal for Selenskyj and against Putin as the leader of the Western allies.

However: the Leopards will be delivered from now on, the Abrams will not arrive until the end of the year at the earliest, probably not until next year. The U.S. government justifies the delay by saying that no Abrams from its own army inventory should be sent.

This is because they have special armor whose formula is top secret - and should remain so. The Abrams to be sent to Ukraine will have different armor. It is questionable whether the Abrams will then be needed at all. This is where the second revelation comes into play, it comes from the Wall Street Journal. According to the report, at a joint meeting in Paris, Scholz and French President Emmanuel Macron urged Selenskyj to negotiate with Russia.


According to the U.S. paper, Macron's top officials believe Ukraine has no chance of liberating Crimea from the Russians, and that a complete liberation of the Donbass is also all but impossible. Ukraine would now be supplied with Western weapons once again, but by the fall it would have to have shown that it was capable of substantial conquest. Otherwise, there should be negotiations, which Putin has so far ruled out just as much as Selenskyj.

In any case, by the fall, there will be Leopard tanks in Ukraine, but no Abrams tanks. Which also puts in a pale light the promise of Biden, who had said that the U.S. would always help Ukraine and supply "whatever it takes, as long as it takes."

In this context, a British initiative is important. British Prime Minister Rishi Sunak is proposing to provide Ukraine with Western weapons in the medium term so that even if the country remains militarily neutral, it can credibly deter Russia after a peace deal is reached. Scholz and Macron support the British plan, which is to be decided on by NATO in July.

In any case, one thing is clear: The claim that there are no negotiations at all or the demand that diplomacy should finally be given a chance is wrong. Negotiations are taking place, and intensively. Scholz and Macron talk sometimes with Putin, sometimes with Selensky. Biden is negotiating with Selensky, and there are also intensive U.S.-Ukrainian consultations one floor below, at the ministerial level.

The bottom line is that what the West wants is gradually becoming clearer. Ukraine is being signaled, contrary to public slogans of loyalty and perseverance, that military assistance is limited in time. Selenskyj is expected to evolve from a war president to a peace president, or as Macron is said to have told him - a "statesman." To liberate everything the Russians have occupied, more and more allies in the West consider illusory. Ukraine is supposed to get modern Western weapons later, but not be able to become a NATO member.

So things are not going badly for Putin.
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