Originally Posted by Skybird
The never-mentioned truth, of which so many republicans who rage against American spending on Ukraine should be reminded. Because, dear Republican friend, these are not funds America is writing off. They are hard-core investments at a profit.
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The U.S. is winning the Ukraine war. U.S. aid to Ukraine is not altruistic.
The U.S. is supporting Ukraine like no other country on earth. But the help is not entirely selfless. For even Joe Biden has nothing to give away. The U.S. president is counting on "arming on credit." Germany, on the other hand, must hope that the war will soon end not far from its doorstep.
All failure is always organizational failure. So when the new Defense Minister Boris Pistorius now takes up his post, he should swiftly correct a bad decision made by his CDU predecessor Thomas de Maizière: The abolition of the Planning Staff.
This planning staff was the ministry's internal think tank. The team, which ultimately numbered around 30, reported directly to the minister and was the geostrategic brain of German defense policy. The abolition of this department in 2012 - for reasons that remain unclear to this day - was tantamount to a brain amputation.
Immediately, this planning staff, which was to be newly established, was to deal with the power shifts within the NATO states triggered by the Ukraine war and the Western reaction to it. It is highly politically incorrect, but all the more worthwhile for that, to deal in particular with the USA. For in the shadow of the war, a shift of power and wealth has taken place here that is more than painful for Germany:
Profiteer No. 1: The U.S. Armaments Industry
Since the beginning of the war, the U.S. has provided Ukraine with more than $50 billion in military, financial and humanitarian assistance. Much more than any other country.
But: across the centuries, former President Calvin Coolidge's phrase holds true: "After all, the chief business of the American people is business."
In May 2022, the Senate passed legislation authorizing the U.S. government to loan military equipment to Ukraine quickly and without red tape - the Ukraine Democracy Defense Lend-Lease Act of 2022. So the roughly $23 billion in military assistance is not a giveaway.
It stipulates that "any loans or leases of defense equipment to the Government of Ukraine [...] [are] subject to return, reimbursement, and repayment."
"Arming on Credit" of Ukraine
"Arming on credit," for that is what it is, was invented during World War II when Winston Churchill found himself unable to manage the defense of Great Britain on his own. The government has now remembered the procedure of selling weapons against promissory bills.
Coincidence or not, the U.S. also has a material interest in keeping the government in Kiev solvent. In late September 2022, the Financial Times reported that the U.S. was urging EU countries to accelerate pledged financial assistance to Ukraine and to establish a "regular mechanism" for financial support. It is still open whether EU funds should and may also be used for military repayments to the US.
The fact is that the U.S. is strict on these matters. Great Britain stuttered off its installments from Lend-Lease debts until 2006, by which time the world war had been over for 61 years.
U.S. defense companies sought after by investors
Such programs - then as now - are used primarily by U.S. defense companies, without the domestic taxpayer being held accountable. The stock market quotations of Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman reflect the euphoria of investors, especially since in the future replacement procurement will also have to be handled by American manufacturers.
The increase in all Western military budgets is also benefiting the Americans. Olaf Scholz has pledged an additional 100 billion.
An analysis by Foreign Policy magazine found that the United States nearly doubled the number of authorized arms sales to NATO allies in 2022 compared to 2021 - from $15.5 billion to $28 billion. This is how war becomes a business.
Profiteer No. 2: The US energy companies
By imposing economic sanctions - trade restrictions, asset freezes, exclusion from payment systems or a ban on oil exports - Russia has been isolated. This will irrevocably disrupt previous German-Russian trade for a very long time. The American energy companies are offering to help in this emergency.
They can hardly get to sleep for laughing: LNG imports from America increased by 260 percent in 2022 compared to the previous year. American liquefied natural gas is replacing Russian pipeline gas from Nord Stream 1 and Co.
American oil is also suddenly in demand: according to data provider OilX, some 500 American oil tankers have sailed to Europe since February 2022, helping to push U.S. crude oil exports to a record high last year. Between December 2021 and December 2022, U.S. export figures rose 52 percent.
Profiteer No. 3: The U.S. government
The U.S. administration has an interest in permanently weakening system rival Russia and essentially removing it from the game of great powers. It can do this safely for its own country and the lives of its own soldiers. This is another reason why Washington has no interest in a quick peace deal in Ukraine, as outlined by 99-year-old Henry Kissinger in Davos yesterday.
Joe Biden wants regime change in Moscow. He made that clear in a speech outside the Warsaw City Palace. His foreign minister has also made it clear that they want to take away Russia's ability to wage war.
The source of uncertainty in Europe also benefits the U.S. capital market in the medium term, which is perceived by investors as a safe haven. Capital outflows from Europe in the first months of the war were substantial. Yesterday after the close of the stock exchange, BASF reported a loss of billions of euros, mainly due to write-downs on its Russian business, which has since been terminated.
Germany has strategic interest that conflict be ended quickly
The Europeans, and Germany in particular, have an overriding strategic interest in ensuring that the conflict is ended as quickly as possible, or at least frozen, and does not under any circumstances spread in the direction of the major Western European cities. The more intense and intensive a war rages in Europe, the more pessimistic are the investment conditions, both in the real economy and on the capital markets of London, Paris and Frankfurt.
Conclusion: Russia as a trading partner is de facto exchanged for America as a trading partner. This also strengthens the Americans' negotiating position for talks on future free trade agreements and the China strategy.
If the planning staff at the Department of Defense still existed, it would write down the following paradox for the Secretary in the Executive Summary: Russia is at war with Ukraine - and America is winning.
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