While everyone is looking north and south, the Ukrainians may be opening a third front centrally
Russia again fired dozens of cruise missiles toward Ukrainian cities yesterday. Many of them were intercepted, but some places still hit important Ukrainian energy infrastructure. It seems that with winter approaching, Russia wants to put as many cities as possible without electricity, gas and running water. On the front lines, meanwhile, fighting continues unabated. In recent days, the Ukrainian army entered Luhansk province, which until recently was entirely in Russian hands, and liberated several villages there. The Russian mercenary army Wagner reportedly moved 1,000 men to reinforce the front line, as well as carry out small counterattacks in some places.
While the Ukrainian military also continues to pressure the thousands of Russian soldiers trapped behind the Dnieper River in Kherson in the south, Russian military bloggers and Western analysts alike are noticing how quiet it is around the front line in Zaporizhzhia. Zaporizhzhia is one of four provinces that Russian President Vladimir Putin annexed in late September. Yet the Russian military controls only the southern half, which includes Europe's largest nuclear power plant. The provincial capital of the same name, in the north of the province, is still in Ukrainian hands. Lately, the city has been constantly targeted by Russian missiles. Attacks by Iranian suicide drones on apartment buildings and other civilian targets killed 17 civilians each Thursday and Saturday, and 12 again on Monday.
Igor Girkin, a former Russian commander at the time of the 2014 Donbas war and today one of Russia's most prominent military analysts, predicted just last week a large-scale Ukrainian counteroffensive in the southern region. "Ukraine has massively assembled weapons and equipment there. We expect the main attack to take place here. If the enemy starts a powerful offensive there as in Kharkiv, it is very questionable whether our forces will be able to stop it." President Volodymyr Zelensky himself also cryptically alluded to a new offensive last week, but also asked for patience. "The day will come when we will also be able to talk about successes in the Zaporizhzhia region," echoed
"Militarily, an offensive in Zaporizhzhia would certainly make sense," said military historian Tom Simoens (Royal Military School). "Luring Russian troops to Kherson by openly talking about a counteroffensive there, then striking in Kharkiv to draw even more troops away from the center, and then striking in that weakened spot in the middle: it's a simple, but in theory smart battle plan. Essential is that the Russians 'happen': do they really send troops away from Zaporizhzhia?" With a counteroffensive in Zaporizhzhia, the Ukrainians could aim for the cities of Melitopol or Mariupol. Ukraine would thus drive a wedge through the occupied territory, further isolating the Russians in Kherson. But for that tactic to succeed, the army would have to be able to advance quickly as far as the Sea of Azov, Simoens adds.
"From the current front, that's about 100 kilometers, and that seems particularly ambitious to me. Moreover, that corridor should be wide enough to protect the flanks. If you know for sure that your opponent is close to collapse, that could be the final tick, but I don't think we are at that point at the moment. Moreover, the timing now seems just too late, with the mud season and subsequent winter getting a little closer every day. On the other hand, the Ukrainians have surprised us before." Another unknown but crucial factor is how many troops and equipment Ukraine has available to open an additional front. "Russia is losing a lot of troops and equipment, but that is also the case on the Ukrainian side. Only we hear much less about that. To push so far so quickly, Ukraine should have modern, Western tanks." For now, both the United States and Germany refuse to supply such tanks, such as the Leopard 2.
Possibly, the blowing up of the Crimean bridge also played a role in preparing a new offensive. "If you plan such an attack, it would at least be an important move in the military chess game," Simoens said. It remains to be seen how bad the damage to the rail line across the bridge is, "but it is at least temporarily a major logistical drain." The other rail line that supplies troops in Kherson is already barely usable in practice because it is so close to the front, and regularly under fire from Ukrainian artillery. That makes the M14 highway along the coast one of the main supply routes from east to west, right through Zaporizhzhia. "But the Russian military-logistical system is not geared to that," Simoens said. "That is completely focused on railroads. So without a Crimean bridge, supplying the Russians throughout southern Ukraine will be a huge challenge."
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