[Skybird]

DW (Deutsch):


Study: USA to become EU's most important LNG supplier

Companies and private households are groaning under high gas prices. It is not yet clear who will replace Russia as the largest gas producer in the long term. A new study looks to the future.

The most important source of supply for liquefied natural gas (LNG) in Germany and Europe will probably be the USA in the future. This is the result of a study by the Energy Economics Institute at the University of Cologne (EWI) on behalf of the industry association Zukunft Gas.

According to the study, natural gas from Russia will no longer be available in the near future, or only with restrictions, which is why the currently high gas prices are not expected to reach the 2018 level again until 2030 - but only if demand is significantly reduced.

In the study "Developments in global gas markets up to 2030," the authors describe how they see the realignment of gas supplies following Russia's attack on Ukraine and the resulting supply freezes up to the end of the decade.

Challenges due to focus on the USA

Imported natural gas from Russia still had a market share of around 55 percent in Germany in 2021. It was transported by pipeline. Meanwhile, the U.S. has the greatest potential for deliveries of liquefied natural gas (LNG) via tanker.

However, the strong focus on the U.S. poses new challenges: "Looking to the immediate future, Germany is called upon not to lose sight of the desired diversification of supply sources," demands Timm Kehler, CEO of Zukunft Gas, according to a press release. "Only in this way can the European gas supply become sustainable and secure. The realignment requires a long-term strategy that strengthens diversified LNG procurement."

In addition, the U.S. also expects long-term signals, Kehler said. "Only when our U.S. trading partners have a clear picture of future offtake prospects will they make the necessary investments to expand liquefaction capacity."

LNG demand to increase significantly

European demand for LNG will increase significantly, the study says. In the event that gas trade from Russia were to come to a permanent halt, the three remaining pipeline facilities from Norway, Azerbaijan and Algeria to the EU would be heavily utilized.

An increase in supply volumes from these countries would therefore only be possible to a limited extent. According to current estimates, Norway could still increase its production until 2028, after which production would decline. Imports from the North African exporting countries are expected to decrease because domestic demand there will increase in the course of the expected economic growth.

In all scenarios examined, U.S. imports increase significantly compared to 2021. If no gas is traded between Russia and the EU, they will reach a share of total EU imports of around 40 percent, according to the study. This would make the EU one of the most important sales markets for natural gas from the U.S. alongside Asia.

In contrast, the growth of volumes coming from Qatar would be limited. Additional imports from Australia or Canada would also probably not be significant for the European market, as these exporters will primarily serve the Asian market. However, the additional volumes could help prevent shortages on world markets. Lower demand would also have a price-dampening effect. This could be achieved, for example, through electrification, efficiency gains and the production of biomethane as a natural gas substitute.

Looking at the current price situation, Timm Kehler expects the situation to ease as early as 2024: "The rapid expansion of LNG terminals in Europe will eliminate import bottlenecks and align European and Asian prices."