[Skybird]

The above ^ is just one way to look at it. Der Tagesspiegel has a very different, and I think they could be right:






Ukraine and its announced but failed offensive in the south of the country continue to puzzle observers. Russia has now significantly increased its troops in the area. Kiev does not seem particularly concerned about this.

Why? At first glance, the Ukrainians' possible plan to liberate the area around the city of Kherson seems paradoxical: Because the military leadership in Kiev never had a plan to drive the Russians out fighting, but to make their position untenable.

Supporting this scenario are statements by Roman Kostenko, a member of parliament who is fighting in the ranks of the special forces in southern Ukraine. He told the British Guardian (source here), "We don't have enough weapons to launch an offensive now and defeat the enemy. It is just enough to defend our territory." This coincides with assessments by Western experts and statements by Ukrainian politicians and military officials.

Further, he explains, "To liberate Kherson, we don't need to attack Kherson. If we control the bridge, they have no logistics." The background: the Ukrainians have made all three bridges over the Dnipro impassable to heavy traffic. Supply routes for Russian troops are thus permanently disrupted, soon ammunition and food will be scarce, and defense against the Ukrainians will be difficult.

The idea in Kiev may be that the Russians will eventually realize that the area around Kherson is no longer defensible and withdraw. It was similar in the early weeks of the war: when the Russians realized that they could not conquer Kiev while attacking in the Donbass, they withdrew from the north of the country. Moscow will probably be faced with this decision again soon. The advantage for the Ukrainians: they would be spared a potentially loss-making attack on Kherson and thus a house-to-house fight.

Statements by Mykhailo Podolyak, one of President Selenskyj's advisers, go in a similar direction. "Russia has taught everyone that for a counteroffensive, you need large numbers of forces that punch in one direction like a giant fist," he said. A Ukrainian counteroffensive looks very different. We don't use the tactics of the 60s and 70s," explained in an interview with the "Guardian" (source here).

Already last week there were rumors that the regional military leadership of the Russians fled from Kherson to the safer eastern side of the Dnipro River. Will more Russian troops soon follow?