[Skybird]

FOCUS writes:



A few weeks ago, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Selenskyj announced a huge counteroffensive in the south of the country. With one million soldiers, the south of the country was to be reconquered and the Russian invaders ousted.
So far, this offensive has not been launched. But time is ticking: Several military experts explain on Twitter why the counterattack must start soon - even if the Ukrainian army is not yet ready for it.

Political pressure could force Ukraine to launch offensive

In a Twitter thread, Australian military expert Mick Ryan explains, "The Ukrainian government is likely under pressure to launch an offensive - before winter to maintain Western support." To Ryan, it's clear that "even if the military isn't ready for an offensive, political reasons could force them to launch anyway."

U.S. expert Dara Massicot adds in an article for " Foreign Affairs ": "Ukraine must use its momentum of counterattacks to prevent Moscow from incorporating the conquered territories into Russia."

After all, if Russia officially annexes the conquered territories, it will give them a strategic advantage - although the West is unlikely to recognize the annexation.

Russia and Ukraine pursue opposing intermediate goals

Massicot's guess: Russia could impose a cease-fire that Ukraine is unlikely to accept. Ukrainian attacks would then probably be declared by Russia as an attack on its own - annexed - territory and threatened with appropriate countermeasures of "self-defense," up to and including nuclear weapons. In the hope that this would dissuade the West from supporting Ukraine.

Therefore, Massicot said, Ukraine and Russia have opposing intermediate goals in the war: Russia is trying to freeze the front lines to buy time for annexation of the conquered territories, while Ukraine is trying to prevent just that.

Mick Ryan: Four points will determine the success of Ukraine's counteroffensive.

According to Mick Ryan, this is the main reason why Selenskyj might feel compelled to launch the announced counteroffensive in the south. According to the Australian military expert, four points are crucial for the course of such a counteroffensive:

1. Operational design of the offensive

First question: what is Ukraine's strategic goal in such a counteroffensive? Ryan sees two possibilities. An objective focused on enemy forces, such as destroying all Russian forces west of the Dnieper River. Or: A geographic objective, such as the capture of specific cities.

Both of these options, according to Ryan, have one thing in common: They are designed to destroy Russian morale and their will to continue the war.

2. The distribution of Ukrainian forces.

Second important point according to Ryan: How will the Ukrainian forces be distributed among the different fronts? For this, he said, a decision is first needed on how many fronts to launch counterattacks at the same time - only then can soldiers, logistical and intelligence capabilities be distributed accordingly.

3. Timing

"In war, the clock is constantly ticking," Ryan writes. The timing of the Ukrainian counteroffensive is paramount to its success, the military expert is certain. The best starting point for the offensive depends on how good Ukrainian reconnaissance is in the relevant areas.

However, Ryan also reiterates, "There are not only military aspects that can determine the start of the offensive, but also political ones.

4. Strategic support

Fourth point according to Ryan: strategic support. This includes weapons supplies for Ukrainian troops - whether from their own industry or from Western countries.

It is unclear when the Ukrainian counteroffensive will start. The only thing that is clear is that the clock is ticking - Ukraine probably cannot afford to wait much longer.